| Update of remaining global budgets in Gt CO2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Source: | FORSTER et al.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/2641/2025/ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| See also: | The Indicators of Global Climate Change initiative (IGCC) | https://www.igcc.earth/ | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sum actual emissions 2020 - 2024 | 248 | Gt | Source: GCP | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Remaining budgets from beginning 2025 (IGCC) | Converted to from 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Warming | Estimated remaining carbon budgets | Warming | Estimated remaining carbon budgets | GtCO2 | GCP | IGCC | EDGAR | ||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities: | 50% | 67% | 83% | Probabilities: | 50% | 67% | 83% | fossil | LUC | total | fossil | LULUCF | total | fossil | LULUCF | total | |||||||||
| [°C] | [GtCO2 from 2025 on] | [°C] | [GtCO2 from 2020 on] | 2020 | 34.4 | 4.5 | 38.9 | 36.0 | 4.4 | 40.4 | 36.2 | -0.1 | 36.1 | ||||||||||||
| 1.5 | 130 | 80 | 30 | 1.5 | 378 | 328 | 278 | 2021 | 36.0 | 4.7 | 40.7 | 36.5 | 4.3 | 40.8 | 38.2 | -0.4 | 37.9 | ||||||||
| 1.6 | 310 | 240 | 160 | 1.6 | 558 | 488 | 408 | 2022 | 36.7 | 4.8 | 41.5 | 37.1 | 4.1 | 41.2 | 38.5 | -0.2 | 38.3 | ||||||||
| 1.7 | 490 | 390 | 290 | 1.7 | 738 | 638 | 538 | 2023 | 37.3 | 4.7 | 42.0 | 37.8 | 3.6 | 41.4 | 39.1 | 1.3 | 40.4 | ||||||||
| 1.8 | 680 | 550 | 430 | 1.8 | 928 | 798 | 678 | 2024 | 37.8 | 4.6 | 42.4 | 38.2 | 4.2 | 42.4 | |||||||||||
| 1.9 | 860 | 710 | 560 | 1.9 | 1,108 | 958 | 808 | total | 205.5 | 206.2 | |||||||||||||||
| 2.0 | 1,050 | 870 | 690 | 2.0 | 1,298 | 1,118 | 938 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Budgets IPCC AR6 | Difference to IGCC budgets | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Warming | Estimated remaining carbon budgets | Warming | Difference | Warming | Difference | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Probabilities: | 50% | 67% | 83% | Probabilities: | 50% | 67% | 83% | Probabilities: | 50% | 67% | 83% | ||||||||||||||
| [°C] | [GtCO2 from 2020 on] | [°C] | [GtCO2 from 2020 on] | [°C] | [GtCO2 from 2020 on] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 1.5 | 500 | 400 | 300 | 1.5 | -122 | -72 | -22 | 1.5 | -24% | -18% | -7% | ||||||||||||||
| 1.6 | 650 | 550 | 400 | 1.6 | -92 | -62 | 8 | 1.6 | -14% | -11% | 2% | ||||||||||||||
| 1.7 | 850 | 700 | 550 | 1.7 | -112 | -62 | -12 | 1.7 | -13% | -9% | -2% | ||||||||||||||
| 1.8 | 1,000 | 850 | 650 | 1.8 | -72 | -52 | 28 | 1.8 | -7% | -6% | 4% | ||||||||||||||
| 1.9 | 1,200 | 1,000 | 800 | 1.9 | -92 | -42 | 8 | 1.9 | -8% | -4% | 1% | ||||||||||||||
| 2.0 | 1,350 | 1,150 | 900 | 2.0 | -52 | -32 | 38 | 2.0 | -4% | -3% | 4% | ||||||||||||||