Figures: Weighting population vs. targets 2030/2019 and emission paths of the six largest emitters
weighting population China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
0% -10% -19% -27% -1% -11% -25% -9%
5% -10% -20% -27% 2% -12% -25% -3%
10% -11% -20% -27% 4% -13% -26% 0%
15% -12% -21% -28% 5% -14% -26% 2%
20% -12% -22% -28% 7% -15% -27% 3%
25% -13% -23% -28% 8% -16% -27% 4%
30% -14% -24% -28% 9% -17% -27% 5%
35% -15% -25% -29% 10% -19% -28% 7%
40% -15% -26% -29% 11% -20% -29% 8%
45% -16% -28% -29% 12% -22% -29% 9%
50% -17% -29% -29% 13% -24% -30% 10%
55% -19% -31% -30% 13% -26% -30% 11%
60% -20% -34% -30% 14% -29% -31% 12%
65% -21% -36% -30% 14% -32% -32% 13%
70% -22% -39% -30% 15% -35% -33% 15% Parameter ESPM:
► linear emission paths (RM-6)
► global budget: 680 Gt
► LUC budget: 0 Gt
► NNE: -2 %
75% -24% -43% -31% 15% -40% -34% 16%
start macro: weighting poplation vs. targets 30/19
80% -26% -48% -31% 16% -45% -35% 17% The last data used when executing the macro:
85% -27% -55% -31% 16% -52% -36% 18% B   680  
90% -29% -63% -32% 16% -60% -37% 19% LUC 0  
95% -32% -75% -32% 17% -71% -39% 20% NNE -2.0%  
100% -34% -94% -33% 17% -87% -40% 21% CeCS -40.0  
ISA   3.3%  
input values for all graphics in this sheet
start macro: paths RM-6 big six
The last data used when executing the macro:
global budget 680 B LUC 0 B 680 LUC 0
weig. pop. 12% WP NNE -2.0% WP 12% NNE -2.0%
CeCS -40   ISA 3.30% 22.4 CeCS -40 ISA 3.3%
emissions in Mill. t China United States EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria column emissions in Gt China United States EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2010 9,108 5,521 3,409 1,738 1,747 1,217 95 4 2010 9.1 5.5 3.4 1.7 1.7 1.2 0.1
2011 9,959 5,308 3,317 1,856 1,833 1,270 104 5   10.0 5.3 3.3 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.1
2012 10,272 5,076 3,250 2,017 1,811 1,309 102 6   10.3 5.1 3.3 2.0 1.8 1.3 0.1
2013 10,763 5,214 3,166 2,075 1,757 1,324 115 7   10.8 5.2 3.2 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.1
2014 10,884 5,231 3,024 2,241 1,743 1,273 122 8   10.9 5.2 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.3 0.1
2015 10,754 5,120 3,084 2,277 1,749 1,233 118 9   10.8 5.1 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.1
2016 10,783 5,022 3,093 2,311 1,729 1,229 124 10   10.8 5.0 3.1 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.1
2017 11,009 4,950 3,117 2,444 1,764 1,214 117 11   11.0 5.0 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.1
2018 11,524 5,107 3,051 2,540 1,839 1,164 123 12   11.5 5.1 3.1 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.1 chnage rates China United States EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2019 11,835 4,956 2,909 2,550 1,868 1,125 128   11.8 5.0 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.1 2019   2.7% -3.0% -4.6% 0.4% 1.6% -3.4% 3.7%
2020 11,995 4,455 2,637 2,366 1,791 1,061 121 2020 12.0 4.5 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.1 2020 2020 1.4% -10.1% -9.3% -7.2% -4.1% -5.7% -5.3%
2021 12,561 4,747 2,819 2,596 1,941 1,080 132   12.6 4.7 2.8 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.1 2021   4.7% 6.5% 6.9% 9.7% 8.4% 1.8% 9.0%
2022 12,524 4,810 2,745 2,831 1,930 1,053 131   12.5 4.8 2.7 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.1 2022   -0.3% 1.3% -2.6% 9.1% -0.6% -2.6% -0.6%
2023 13,027 4,610 2,505 3,091 1,974 1,004 125   13.0 4.6 2.5 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.1 2023   4.0% -4.2% -8.7% 9.2% 2.3% -4.6% -5.0%
2024 13,125 4,631 2,448 3,251 2,015 992 132   13.1 4.6 2.4 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.1 2024   0.8% 0.5% -2.3% 5.2% 2.1% -1.2% 5.9%
2025 13,057 4,739 2,445 3,210 2,010 977 141   13.1 4.7 2.4 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.1 2025   -0.5% 2.3% -0.1% -1.3% -0.3% -1.5% 7.1%
2026 12,547 4,579 2,377 3,101 1,932 948 139   12.5 4.6 2.4 3.1 1.9 0.9 0.1 2026   -3.9% -3.4% -2.8% -3.4% -3.9% -3.0% -1.8%
2027 12,036 4,419 2,310 2,992 1,854 920 136   12.0 4.4 2.3 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 2027   -4.1% -3.5% -2.8% -3.5% -4.1% -3.0% -1.8%
2028 11,526 4,258 2,242 2,883 1,775 891 134   11.5 4.3 2.2 2.9 1.8 0.9 0.1 2028   -4.2% -3.6% -2.9% -3.6% -4.2% -3.1% -1.9%
2029 11,015 4,098 2,175 2,774 1,697 862 131   11.0 4.1 2.2 2.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 2029   -4.4% -3.8% -3.0% -3.8% -4.4% -3.2% -1.9%
2030 10,505 3,938 2,107 2,665 1,618 833 129 2030 10.5 3.9 2.1 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.1 2030 2030 -4.6% -3.9% -3.1% -3.9% -4.6% -3.4% -2.0%
2031 9,995 3,777 2,040 2,556 1,540 804 126   10.0 3.8 2.0 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.1   -4.9% -4.1% -3.2% -4.1% -4.8% -3.5% -2.0%
2032 9,484 3,617 1,972 2,447 1,462 775 123   9.5 3.6 2.0 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.1   -5.1% -4.2% -3.3% -4.3% -5.1% -3.6% -2.0% year start change rate China United States EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2033 8,974 3,457 1,905 2,338 1,383 746 121   9.0 3.5 1.9 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.1   -5.4% -4.4% -3.4% -4.5% -5.4% -3.7% -2.1% China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria Parameter ESPM:
► scenario type: RM-6 abs
► global budget: 680 Gt
► weighting population: 12%
► LUC budget: 0 Gt
► NNE: -2 %
2034 8,463 3,297 1,837 2,229 1,305 717 118   8.5 3.3 1.8 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.1   -5.7% -4.6% -3.5% -4.7% -5.7% -3.9% -2.1% 2025 -0.5% 2.3% -0.1% -1.3% -0.3% -1.5% 7.1%
2035 7,953 3,136 1,770 2,120 1,227 689 116   8.0 3.1 1.8 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.1   -6.0% -4.9% -3.7% -4.9% -6.0% -4.0% -2.2% China, -0.5% USA, 2.3% EU27, -0.1% India, -1.3% Russia, -0.3% Japan, -1.5% Nigeria, 7.1% start change rate 2026 (actual value 2025)
2036 7,442 2,976 1,702 2,011 1,148 660 113   7.4 3.0 1.7 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.1   -6.4% -5.1% -3.8% -5.1% -6.4% -4.2% -2.2% China, -0.5% USA, 2.3% EU27, -0.1% India, -1.3% Russia, -0.3% Japan, -1.5% Nigeria, 7.1%
2037 6,932 2,816 1,635 1,902 1,070 631 111   6.9 2.8 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.1   -6.9% -5.4% -4.0% -5.4% -6.8% -4.4% -2.3%
2038 6,422 2,656 1,567 1,793 991 602 108   6.4 2.7 1.6 1.8 1.0 0.6 0.1   -7.4% -5.7% -4.1% -5.7% -7.3% -4.6% -2.3%
2039 5,911 2,495 1,500 1,685 913 573 105   5.9 2.5 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.1   -7.9% -6.0% -4.3% -6.1% -7.9% -4.8% -2.4%
2040 5,401 2,335 1,432 1,576 835 544 103 2040 5.4 2.3 1.4 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 2040 -8.6% -6.4% -4.5% -6.5% -8.6% -5.0% -2.4%
2041 4,890 2,175 1,365 1,467 756 515 100   4.9 2.2 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.1   -9.5% -6.9% -4.7% -6.9% -9.4% -5.3% -2.5%
2042 4,380 2,014 1,297 1,358 678 486 98   4.4 2.0 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.1   -10.4% -7.4% -4.9% -7.4% -10.4% -5.6% -2.6%
2043 3,869 1,854 1,230 1,249 600 457 95   3.9 1.9 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.1   -11.7% -8.0% -5.2% -8.0% -11.6% -5.9% -2.6%
2044 3,359 1,694 1,162 1,140 521 429 93   3.4 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1   -13.2% -8.6% -5.5% -8.7% -13.1% -6.3% -2.7%
2045 2,849 1,534 1,095 1,031 443 400 90   2.8 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1   -15.2% -9.5% -5.8% -9.6% -15.0% -6.7% -2.8%
2046 2,338 1,373 1,028 922 365 371 88   2.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1   -17.9% -10.5% -6.2% -10.6% -17.7% -7.2% -2.8%
2047 1,828 1,213 960 813 286 342 85   1.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1   -21.8% -11.7% -6.6% -11.8% -21.5% -7.8% -2.9%
2048 1,317 1,053 893 704 208 313 82   1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1   -27.9% -13.2% -7.0% -13.4% -27.4% -8.4% -3.0%
2049 807 892 825 595 129 284 80   0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1   -38.7% -15.2% -7.6% -15.5% -37.7% -9.2% -3.1%
2050 296 732 758 486 51 255 77 2050 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.1 2050 -63.3% -18.0% -8.2% -18.3% -60.5% -10.2% -3.2%
start macro: paths RM-3 big six
sum 20 - 50 236.8 94.4 54.8 62.2 36.4 21.2 3.5
Inputs see above The values entered in the ‘output countries’ sheet or the actual value for 2019 are used as the starting change rate.
B 680 LUC 0 B 680 LUC 0 The last data used when executing the macro
WP 12% NNE -2.0% WP 12% NNE -2.0%
CeCS -40 ISA 3.30% CeCS -40 ISA 3.3%
  China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria emissions in Gt China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2018 11,995 4,455 2,637 2,366 1,791 1,061 121   12.0 4.5 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.1 change rates China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2019 11,835 4,956 2,909 2,550 1,868 1,125 128   11.8 5.0 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.1     2.7% -3.0% -4.6% 0.4% 1.6% -3.4% 3.7%
2020 11,995 4,455 2,637 2,366 1,791 1,061 121 2020 12.0 4.5 2.6 2.4 1.8 1.1 0.1 2020 2020 1.4% -10.1% -9.3% -7.2% -4.1% -5.7% -5.3%
2021 12,561 4,747 2,819 2,596 1,941 1,080 132   12.6 4.7 2.8 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.1     4.7% 6.5% 6.9% 9.7% 8.4% 1.8% 9.0%
2022 12,524 4,810 2,745 2,831 1,930 1,053 131   12.5 4.8 2.7 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.1     -0.3% 1.3% -2.6% 9.1% -0.6% -2.6% -0.6%
2023 13,027 4,610 2,505 3,091 1,974 1,004 125   13.0 4.6 2.5 3.1 2.0 1.0 0.1     4.0% -4.2% -8.7% 9.2% 2.3% -4.6% -5.0%
2024 13,125 4,631 2,448 3,251 2,015 992 132   13.1 4.6 2.4 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.1     0.8% 0.5% -2.3% 5.2% 2.1% -1.2% 5.9%
2025 13,057 4,739 2,445 3,210 2,010 977 141   13.1 4.7 2.4 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.1 2025   -0.5% 2.3% -0.1% -1.3% -0.3% -1.5% 7.1%
2026 12,989 4,850 2,441 3,169 2,004 963 151   13.0 4.8 2.4 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.2     -0.5% 2.3% -0.1% -1.3% -0.3% -1.5% 7.1%
2027 12,804 4,910 2,427 3,111 1,979 945 161   12.8 4.9 2.4 3.1 2.0 0.9 0.2     -1.4% 1.2% -0.6% -1.8% -1.2% -1.9% 6.2%
2028 12,505 4,917 2,400 3,036 1,936 924 169   12.5 4.9 2.4 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.2     -2.3% 0.2% -1.1% -2.4% -2.2% -2.2% 5.3%
2029 12,099 4,871 2,363 2,945 1,875 900 177   12.1 4.9 2.4 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.2     -3.2% -0.9% -1.6% -3.0% -3.1% -2.6% 4.4%
2030 11,596 4,772 2,315 2,841 1,799 872 183 2030 11.6 4.8 2.3 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.2 2030 2030 -4.2% -2.0% -2.0% -3.6% -4.1% -3.0% 3.5%
2031 11,009 4,623 2,257 2,723 1,709 842 188   11.0 4.6 2.3 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.2     -5.1% -3.1% -2.5% -4.1% -5.0% -3.4% 2.6%
2032 10,351 4,428 2,190 2,595 1,608 810 191   10.4 4.4 2.2 2.6 1.6 0.8 0.2     -6.0% -4.2% -3.0% -4.7% -5.9% -3.8% 1.7%
2033 9,638 4,193 2,114 2,459 1,497 776 193   9.6 4.2 2.1 2.5 1.5 0.8 0.2     -6.9% -5.3% -3.5% -5.3% -6.9% -4.2% 0.8% Parameter ESPM:
► scenario type: RM-3 lin
► global budget: 680 Gt
► weighting population: 12%
► LUC budget: 0 Gt
► NNE: -2 %
2034 8,887 3,925 2,031 2,315 1,380 740 192   8.9 3.9 2.0 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.2     -7.8% -6.4% -3.9% -5.8% -7.8% -4.6% -0.1%
2035 8,113 3,631 1,941 2,166 1,259 703 190   8.1 3.6 1.9 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.2 2035   -8.7% -7.5% -4.4% -6.4% -8.8% -5.0% -1.0%
2036 7,333 3,320 1,846 2,015 1,137 665 187   7.3 3.3 1.8 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.2     -9.6% -8.6% -4.9% -7.0% -9.7% -5.4% -1.9%
2037 6,561 2,999 1,747 1,862 1,016 627 182   6.6 3.0 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.2     -10.5% -9.7% -5.4% -7.6% -10.6% -5.8% -2.8%
2038 5,811 2,676 1,645 1,711 898 588 175   5.8 2.7 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.2     -11.4% -10.8% -5.8% -8.1% -11.6% -6.2% -3.7%
2039 5,094 2,359 1,542 1,562 786 549 167   5.1 2.4 1.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2     -12.3% -11.9% -6.3% -8.7% -12.5% -6.6% -4.6%
2040 4,419 2,053 1,437 1,417 680 511 158 2040 4.4 2.1 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 2040 2040 -13.3% -12.9% -6.8% -9.3% -13.5% -7.0% -5.5%
2041 3,793 1,765 1,333 1,277 582 473 148   3.8 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.1     -14.2% -14.0% -7.3% -9.9% -14.4% -7.4% -6.4%
2042 3,221 1,498 1,229 1,144 493 436 137   3.2 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.1     -15.1% -15.1% -7.7% -10.4% -15.3% -7.8% -7.3%
2043 2,707 1,255 1,128 1,018 412 401 126   2.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.1     -16.0% -16.2% -8.2% -11.0% -16.3% -8.2% -8.2%
2044 2,249 1,038 1,030 900 341 366 114   2.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.1     -16.9% -17.3% -8.7% -11.6% -17.2% -8.6% -9.1%
2045 1,849 847 936 791 279 334 103   1.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 2045   -17.8% -18.4% -9.2% -12.1% -18.2% -9.0% -10.0%
2046 1,503 682 846 690 226 302 92   1.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1     -18.7% -19.5% -9.6% -12.7% -19.1% -9.3% -10.9%
2047 1,208 541 760 598 181 273 81   1.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.1     -19.6% -20.6% -10.1% -13.3% -20.0% -9.7% -11.8%
2048 960 424 679 515 143 245 71   1.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1     -20.5% -21.7% -10.6% -13.9% -21.0% -10.1% -12.7%
2049 754 328 604 441 112 219 61   0.8 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1     -21.4% -22.8% -11.1% -14.4% -21.9% -10.5% -13.6%
2050 586 249 534 375 86 196 52 2050 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 2050 2050 -22.3% -23.9% -11.5% -15.0% -22.9% -10.9% -14.5%
2051 449 187 470 316 66 173 44   0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0
2052 341 138 411 265 49 153 37   0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0
2053 232 90 358 221 33 135 31   0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
2054 124 41 310 183 17 118 25   0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
2055 15 -8 267 150 1 103 20   0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0
2056 -94 -57 228 122 -16 89 16   -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
2057 -202 -99 194 99 -32 77 13   -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
2058 -237 -99 164 80 -37 66 10   -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
2059 -237 -99 138 60 -37 56 8   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
2060 -237 -99 116 41 -37 48 6 2060 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2061 -237 -99 96 21 -37 41 5   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2062 -237 -99 77 2 -37 34 3   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2063 -237 -99 58 -17 -37 28 2   -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2064 -237 -99 38 -37 -37 22 1   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2065 -237 -99 19 -51 -37 15 0   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2066 -237 -99 -1 -51 -37 9 -1   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2067 -237 -99 -20 -51 -37 2 -2   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2068 -237 -99 -40 -51 -37 -4 -3   -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2069 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -10 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2070 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -17 -3 2070 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2071 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2072 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2073 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2074 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2075 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2076 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2077 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2078 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2079 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2080 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3 2080 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2081 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2082 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2083 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2084 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2085 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2086 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2087 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2088 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2089 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2090 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3 2090 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2091 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2092 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2093 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2094 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2095 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2096 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2097 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2098 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2099 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2100 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   2100 -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
 RR_SY -0.518% 2.333% -0.127% -1.263% ###### -1.458% 7.111% sum 20 - 100 225.0 91.2 56.4 60.7 34.6 21.3 4.6
RR_19 2.699% -2.963% -4.636% 0.404% 1.561% -3.369% 3.679%
budget 225,016 91,177 56,398 60,691 34,590 21,290 4,560 NNE -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0%
start macro: paths RM-4 big six
Inputs see above The values entered in the ‘output countries’ sheet or the actual value for 2019 are used as the starting change rate.
B 680 LUC 0 B 680 LUC 0 The last data used when executing the macro
WP 12% NNE -2.0% WP 12% NNE -2.0%
CeCS -40 ISA 3.3% CeCS -40 ISA 3.3%
  China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria emissions in Gt China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2018 11,995 4,455 2,637 2,366 1,791 1,061 121   11.995 4.455 2.637 2.366 1.791 1.061 0.121 change rates China USA EU27 India Russia Japan Nigeria
2019 11,835 4,956 2,909 2,550 1,868 1,125 128   11.835 4.956 2.909 2.550 1.868 1.125 0.128 2019 2.7% -3.0% -4.6% 0.4% 1.6% -3.4% 3.7%
2020 11,995 4,455 2,637 2,366 1,791 1,061 121 2020 11.995 4.455 2.637 2.366 1.791 1.061 0.121 2020 1.4% -10.1% -9.3% -7.2% -4.1% -5.7% -5.3%
2021 12,561 4,747 2,819 2,596 1,941 1,080 132   12.561 4.747 2.819 2.596 1.941 1.080 0.132 2021 4.7% 6.5% 6.9% 9.7% 8.4% 1.8% 9.0%
2022 12,524 4,810 2,745 2,831 1,930 1,053 131   12.524 4.810 2.745 2.831 1.930 1.053 0.131 2022 -0.3% 1.3% -2.6% 9.1% -0.6% -2.6% -0.6%
2023 13,027 4,610 2,505 3,091 1,974 1,004 125   13.027 4.610 2.505 3.091 1.974 1.004 0.125 2023 4.0% -4.2% -8.7% 9.2% 2.3% -4.6% -5.0%
2024 13,125 4,631 2,448 3,251 2,015 992 132   13.125 4.631 2.448 3.251 2.015 0.992 0.132 2024 0.8% 0.5% -2.3% 5.2% 2.1% -1.2% 5.9%
2025 13,125 4,631 2,448 3,251 2,015 992 132   13.125 4.631 2.448 3.251 2.015 0.992 0.132 2025 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2026 13,008 4,719 2,441 3,203 2,002 976 141   13.008 4.719 2.441 3.203 2.002 0.976 0.141 2026 -0.9% 1.9% -0.3% -1.5% -0.6% -1.6% 6.9%
2027 12,928 4,825 2,437 3,161 1,995 962 151   12.928 4.825 2.437 3.161 1.995 0.962 0.151 2027 -0.6% 2.2% -0.2% -1.3% -0.4% -1.5% 7.1%
2028 12,812 4,917 2,431 3,115 1,982 946 161   12.812 4.917 2.431 3.115 1.982 0.946 0.161 2028 -0.9% 1.9% -0.3% -1.5% -0.6% -1.6% 6.9%
2029 12,638 4,985 2,420 3,061 1,960 930 172   12.638 4.985 2.420 3.061 1.960 0.930 0.172 2029 -1.4% 1.4% -0.4% -1.7% -1.1% -1.7% 6.5%
2030 12,382 5,016 2,403 2,998 1,924 912 182 2030 12.382 5.016 2.403 2.998 1.924 0.912 0.182 2030 -2.0% 0.6% -0.7% -2.1% -1.8% -1.9% 6.1%
2031 12,026 5,000 2,379 2,922 1,872 892 192   12.026 5.000 2.379 2.922 1.872 0.892 0.192   -2.9% -0.3% -1.0% -2.5% -2.7% -2.2% 5.5%
2032 11,556 4,926 2,346 2,833 1,800 870 202   11.556 4.926 2.346 2.833 1.800 0.870 0.202   -3.9% -1.5% -1.4% -3.1% -3.8% -2.5% 4.8%
2033 10,963 4,785 2,303 2,727 1,709 845 209   10.963 4.785 2.303 2.727 1.709 0.845 0.209   -5.1% -2.9% -1.8% -3.7% -5.1% -2.9% 3.9% Parameter ESPM:
► scenario type: RM-4 quadr
► global budget: 680 Gt
► weighting population: 12%
► LUC budget: 0 Gt
► NNE: -2 %
► CeCS: -40 Gt
2034 10,246 4,572 2,249 2,605 1,597 817 216   10.246 4.572 2.249 2.605 1.597 0.817 0.216   -6.5% -4.5% -2.4% -4.5% -6.6% -3.3% 2.9%
2035 9,411 4,287 2,182 2,466 1,466 785 220   9.411 4.287 2.182 2.466 1.466 0.785 0.220   -8.1% -6.3% -3.0% -5.3% -8.2% -3.8% 1.8%
2036 8,476 3,932 2,103 2,311 1,317 751 221   8.476 3.932 2.103 2.311 1.317 0.751 0.221   -9.9% -8.3% -3.6% -6.3% -10.1% -4.4% 0.6%
2037 7,467 3,520 2,012 2,142 1,157 713 219   7.467 3.520 2.012 2.142 1.157 0.713 0.219   -11.9% -10.5% -4.4% -7.3% -12.2% -5.0% -0.8%
2038 6,415 3,065 1,908 1,960 990 673 214   6.415 3.065 1.908 1.960 0.990 0.673 0.214   -14.1% -12.9% -5.2% -8.5% -14.4% -5.7% -2.3%
2039 5,361 2,587 1,793 1,769 823 630 206   5.361 2.587 1.793 1.769 0.823 0.630 0.206   -16.4% -15.6% -6.0% -9.8% -16.9% -6.4% -3.9%
2040 4,344 2,110 1,668 1,572 662 585 194 2040 4.344 2.110 1.668 1.572 0.662 0.585 0.194 2040 -19.0% -18.4% -7.0% -11.1% -19.5% -7.2% -5.7%
2041 3,401 1,656 1,535 1,375 514 538 179   3.401 1.656 1.535 1.375 0.514 0.538 0.179   -21.7% -21.5% -8.0% -12.6% -22.4% -8.0% -7.6%
2042 2,564 1,245 1,395 1,181 383 490 162   2.564 1.245 1.395 1.181 0.383 0.490 0.162   -24.6% -24.8% -9.1% -14.1% -25.5% -8.9% -9.6%
2043 1,853 893 1,253 994 273 441 143   1.853 0.893 1.253 0.994 0.273 0.441 0.143   -27.7% -28.3% -10.2% -15.8% -28.7% -9.9% -11.8%
2044 1,278 607 1,109 820 185 393 123   1.278 0.607 1.109 0.820 0.185 0.393 0.123   -31.0% -32.0% -11.4% -17.5% -32.1% -10.9% -14.1%
2045 837 389 968 661 119 346 103   0.837 0.389 0.968 0.661 0.119 0.346 0.103   -34.5% -35.9% -12.7% -19.4% -35.8% -12.0% -16.5%
2046 517 233 832 520 72 300 83   0.517 0.233 0.832 0.520 0.072 0.300 0.083   -38.2% -40.1% -14.1% -21.4% -39.6% -13.2% -19.0%
2047 300 130 702 398 40 257 65   0.300 0.130 0.702 0.398 0.040 0.257 0.065   -42.0% -44.4% -15.5% -23.4% -43.7% -14.3% -21.7%
2048 82 26 583 296 9 217 49   0.082 0.026 0.583 0.296 0.009 0.217 0.049   #NV #NV -17.0% -25.6% #NV -15.6% -24.5%
2049 -135 -77 474 214 -22 180 36   -0.135 -0.077 0.474 0.214 -0.022 0.180 0.036   #NV #NV -18.6% -27.8% #NV -16.9% -27.5%
2050 -237 -99 378 149 -37 147 25 2050 -0.237 -0.099 0.378 0.149 -0.037 0.147 0.025 2050 #NV #NV -20.2% -30.2% #NV -18.3% -30.5%
2051 -237 -99 295 101 -37 118 16   -0.237 -0.099 0.295 0.101 -0.037 0.118 0.016
2052 -237 -99 225 65 -37 93 10   -0.237 -0.099 0.225 0.065 -0.037 0.093 0.010
2053 -237 -99 168 30 -37 72 6   -0.237 -0.099 0.168 0.030 -0.037 0.072 0.006
2054 -237 -99 121 -6 -37 54 3   -0.237 -0.099 0.121 -0.006 -0.037 0.054 0.003
2055 -237 -99 86 -41 -37 40 1   -0.237 -0.099 0.086 -0.041 -0.037 0.040 0.001
2056 -237 -99 50 -51 -37 29 -2   -0.237 -0.099 0.050 -0.051 -0.037 0.029 -0.002
2057 -237 -99 14 -51 -37 18 -3   -0.237 -0.099 0.014 -0.051 -0.037 0.018 -0.003
2058 -237 -99 -22 -51 -37 7 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.022 -0.051 -0.037 0.007 -0.003
2059 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -4 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.004 -0.003
2060 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -16 -3 2060 -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.016 -0.003
2061 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2062 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2063 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2064 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2065 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2066 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2067 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2068 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2069 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2070 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3 2070 -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2071 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2072 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2073 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2074 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2075 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2076 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2077 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2078 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2079 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2080 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3 2080 -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2081 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2082 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2083 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2084 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2085 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2086 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2087 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2088 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2089 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2090 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3 2090 -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2091 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2092 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2093 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2094 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2095 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2096 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2097 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2098 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2099 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
2100 -237 -99 -58 -51 -37 -23 -3   2100 -0.237 -0.099 -0.058 -0.051 -0.037 -0.023 -0.003
 RR_SY -0.52% 2.33% -0.13% -1.26% -0.26% -1.46% 7.13% sum 20 - 100 225.0 91.2 56.4 60.7 34.6 21.3 4.6
RR_19 2.70% -2.96% -4.64% 0.40% 1.56% -3.37% 3.68%
budget 225,016 91,177 56,398 60,691 34,590 21,290 4,560 NNE -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.0%