Determination of the
free parameters for the global scenarios |
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target is met |
target is not met[1] |
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input values |
determination
via "goal seek" |
target value of "goal seek" |
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RM-1 const |
RM-2 exp |
RM-3 lin |
RM-4 quadr |
RM-5 rad |
RM-6 abs |
SPM-R |
average global change rates 2017 - 2019 |
global change rate
2019 |
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characteristics of the
scenario |
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RRt const |
RRt exp |
RRt lin |
RRt quadr |
RRt rad |
RA const |
Raupach |
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A
corona effect should not be considered here. |
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only a negative RR_20 possible |
a positive RR_20 is also
possible
(= increasing emissions after 2019) |
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change
rate 2020 (RR20)[2] |
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-0.60% |
-0.60% |
-0.60% |
-0.60% |
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1.3% |
1.54% |
-0.60% |
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Initial
values for free parameter (cells shaded in grey) if Goal Seek does not
converge: |
-10% |
1% |
-1% |
0 |
0 |
-3 |
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RRt constant |
a |
a |
a |
a |
RA |
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Free
parameters are determined by Goal Seek in such a way as that the budget is
adhered to. |
-7.73% |
18.95% |
-0.56135% |
-8.2447E+303 |
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-3.77787E+16 |
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-0.00040681 |
-0.02127523 |
-1.38[3] |
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scenario ∑ 2020 - 2100 |
Gt |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
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budget ∑
2020 - 2100[4] |
Gt |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
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emissions
2100 scenario; E2100 |
Gt |
-3.50 |
-3.50 |
-3.50 |
-3.50 |
-3.50 |
-3.50 |
0.00 |
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minimum emissions; Emin[5] |
Gt |
-3.50 |
-3.50 |
-3.50 |
-3.50 |
-3.50 |
-3.50 |
- |
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At
which level of emissions in 2019 (threshold value; TV) shall the percentage
reduction be change into a constant reduction?[6] |
RM 2 -5 |
1.5 |
Gt |
3.5% |
of global emissions
in 2019 |
3.5%[7] |
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RM 1 |
1.9 |
Gt |
4.5% |
4.5%[8] |
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values from the scenarios |
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RM-1 const |
RM-2 exp |
RM-3 lin |
RM-4 quadr |
RM-5 rad |
RM-6 abs |
SPM-R |
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year Emin is achieved |
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2096 |
2049 |
2068 |
2058 |
2080 |
2054 |
- |
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maximum RRt |
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-7.7% |
-46% |
-19% |
-32% |
-13% |
-59% |
-14% |
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year maximum RRt |
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2024 |
2045 |
2052 |
2048 |
2056 |
2050 |
- |
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overshoot |
Gt |
59 |
185 |
136 |
164 |
102 |
170 |
- |
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reduction
2030 vs. 2010 |
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-48% |
-9% |
-25% |
-13% |
-35% |
-25% |
-48% |
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Detailed
description of the RM Scenario Types: |
Zenodo |
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