Determination of the
free parameters for the global scenarios |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
target is met |
target is not met[1] |
|
|
|
|
|
input values |
determination
via "goal seek" |
target value of "goal seek" |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RM-1 const |
RM-2 exp |
RM-3 lin |
RM-4 quadr |
RM-5 rad |
RM-6 abs |
SPM-R |
average global change rates 2017 - 2019 |
last actual global
change rate |
|
|
|
|
|
|
characteristics of the
scenario |
|
RRt const |
RRt exp |
RRt lin |
RRt quadr |
RRt rad |
RA const |
Raupach |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
A
corona effect should not be considered here. |
|
only a negative RR_20 possible |
a positive RR_20 is also
possible
(= increasing emissions after 2019) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
change rate 2024 (RR_SY)[2] |
|
|
-0.01% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
1.3% |
0.6% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Initial
values for free parameter (cells shaded in grey) if Goal Seek does not
converge: |
-10% |
1% |
-1% |
0 |
0 |
-3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RRt constant |
a |
a |
a |
a |
RA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free
parameters are determined by Goal Seek in such a way as that the budget is
adhered to. |
-5.22% |
38.80% |
-0.45368% |
-8.2447E+303 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-3.77787E+16 |
|
-0.00026725 |
-0.01566676 |
-1.03[3] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
scenario ∑ 2020 - 2100 |
Gt |
650 |
650 |
650 |
650 |
650 |
650 |
650 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
budget ∑
2020 - 2100[4] |
Gt |
650 |
650 |
650 |
650 |
650 |
650 |
650 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
emissions
2100 scenario; E2100 |
Gt |
-9.00 |
-9.00 |
-9.00 |
-9.00 |
-9.00 |
-9.00 |
0.01 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
minimum emissions; Emin[5] |
Gt |
-9.00 |
-9.00 |
-9.00 |
-9.00 |
-9.00 |
-9.00 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
At
which level of emissions in 2019 (threshold value; TV) shall the percentage
reduction be change into a constant reduction?[6] |
RM 2 -5 |
4.9 |
Gt |
12.0% |
of global emissions
in 2019 |
3.5%[7] |
|
RM 1 |
8.2 |
Gt |
20.0% |
4.5%[8] |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
dashboard |
check sum |
0 is ok; 1
not ok |
|
RM-1 const |
RM-2 exp |
RM-3 lin |
RM-4 quadr |
RM-5 rad |
RM-6 abs |
|
budget is adhered to |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
emissions in 2100 not
positive |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
no increasing emissions |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
check sum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
E_2100 is negative but not
equal to E_min |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
values from the scenarios |
|
RM-1 const |
RM-2 exp |
RM-3 lin |
RM-4 quadr |
RM-5 rad |
RM-6 abs |
SPM-R |
|
year Emin is achieved |
|
2092 |
2053 |
2074 |
2065 |
2087 |
2072 |
- |
|
maximum RRt |
|
-5.8% |
-50% |
-14% |
-22% |
-9% |
-18% |
-10% |
|
year maximum RRt |
|
2020 |
2050 |
2055 |
2053 |
2057 |
2058 |
- |
|
overshoot |
Gt |
175 |
437 |
296 |
361 |
212 |
301 |
- |
|
reduction
2030 vs. 2010 |
|
-26% |
8% |
1% |
9% |
-13% |
-11% |
-32% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Detailed
description of the RM Scenario Types: |
Zenodo |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|