Conversion factor C > CO2: #
Calculation of the global budgets to be distributed here
input fields
Total global CO2 budget 2020 - 2100                     
global CO2 budget 2020 - 2100  in Gt Key findings on remaining CO2 budgets
of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group 1:		 see also "updated global budgets" sheet
650
 
Global CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 excluding LUC and ISA                  
Should CeCS be taken into account? yes CeCS is not included in the national emissions figures used here, so the global budget shold be adjusted accordingly.
global CO2 budget 2020 - 2100  650  Gt
- LUC budget 2020 - 2100 Enter the LUC budget 2020 - 2100 in Gt:  0 0% 0.0  Gt* 4.89 Gt actual in 2019
- ISA budget 2020 - 2100 How much should be reserved from the global budget?  3.2% -21.0  Gt 3.2% actual share of global emissions in 2019
- CeCS adjustment 2020 -2100[1] Estimated CeCS 2020 – 2100 in Gt: -40.0   40.0  Gt -0.8 Gt actual in 2019
= global CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 excluding: LUC, ISA and CeCS             669  Gt used in the "all countries EDGAR" sheet
LUC ISA CeCS
global CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 including LUC and excluding ISA/CeCS   650   -21.0 40.0 = 669  Gt used in the "all countries GCP" sheet 669 0
 
global CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 excluding LUC/CeCS and including ISA   650 0.0   40.0 = 690  Gt used in the "EU EEAeL-GCP" sheet 690 0
 
global CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 including LUC/ISA and excluding CeCS   650     40.0 = 690  Gt used in "EU EEAiL" and "GER" sheets 690 0
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Depending on which database is used, a budget must be set aside at global level for LUC or ISA if these are not included in national emissions. In principle, this also applies to Cement Carbonation Sink (CeCS). * For the determination of the LUC budget, see our separate paper:
Global CO2 budgets 2016 - 2100 in Gt (back calculation)                  
global budget from 2020                   650.0
+ global emissions 2016 - 2019                   162.7
= global budget 2016 - 2100   812.7
- LUC actual emissions 2016 - 2019   -20.5
- LUC budget 2020 - 2100                   0.0
- ISA actual emissions 2016 - 2019       -4.8
- ISA budget 2020 - 2100                   -21.0
- CeCS actual 2016 - 2019   2.9
- CeCS adjustment 2020 - 2100         40.0
= global budget 2016 - 2100 excl. LUC,  ISA and CeCS               809 used in the "all countries EDGAR" sheet
LUC ISA CeCS
global CO₂ budget 2016 - 2100 incl. LUC and excl. ISA/CeCS   812.7   -25.8 42.9 = 830 used in the "all countries GCP" sheet 830 0
 
global CO₂ budget 2016 - 2100 excl. LUC/CeCS and incl. ISA   812.7 -20.5   42.9 = 835 used in the "EU EEAeL-GCP" sheet 835 0
 
global CO2 budget 2016 - 2100 including LUC/ISA and excluding CeCS   812.7     42.9 = 856 used in "EU EEAiL" and "GER" sheets 856 0
Global Population                      
2019 7,712  M P_BY source: EDGAR
2016 7,465  M
Tools for determining global paths (info)                    
Based on a predetermined global CO2 budget from 2020, the following web app can be used to calculate global emission paths with the RM Scenario Types:
http://paths.climate-calculator.info/
Furthermore, an Excel tool is offered that provides even more input and analysis options:   https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4568839
The emission data required in these tools are given in this sheet:   Data export
Info: web app for calculating linear global emission paths:     https://global-paths.climate-calculator.info
Info: The following is an overview of global emissions data:                
global CO2 emissions including land-use land-use fossil + cement CeCS
source GCP EDGAR GCP EDGAR GCP EDGAR GCP
land-use LUC LULUCF LUC LULUCF - -
CeCS included not incl. not incl. - included not incl. not incl. -
1990 28.35 28.56 23.06 5.83 0.40 22.52 22.73 22.66 -0.21 0.7%
2010 39.28 39.84 33.27 6.52 -0.70 32.76 33.32 33.97 -0.56 1.4%
2015 41.22 41.92 38.40 6.51 2.11 34.71 35.40 36.29 -0.69 1.7%
2019 41.21 41.97 38.79 4.89 0.78 36.32 37.09 38.01 -0.77 1.9%
2020 38.89 39.67 36.10 4.52 -0.11 34.38 35.16 36.21 -0.78 2.0%
2021 40.70 41.52 37.87 4.66 -0.35 36.04 36.87 38.22 -0.82 2.0%
2022 41.50 42.31 38.30 4.79 -0.24 36.72 37.53 38.55 -0.81 2.0%
2023 42.01 42.84 40.41 4.75 1.30 37.26 38.09 39.11 -0.83 2.0%
2024 42.36 43.18 39.59 4.59 -0.05 37.78 38.60 39.63 -0.82 1.9%
2025 42.23     4.12   38.11        
 Coefficient of Variation (CV) 2019 0.1
LUC GCP 2019[2] Consensus Score (CS) 6%
LUC-R in Gt 1.4
share 12%
Info: Global emissions 2019 according to EDGAR and GCP                
EDGAR CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels and cement production excluding ISA/CeCS   36.7  Gt  
ISA 1.3  Gt  
LULUCF 0.8  Gt  
total CO2 emissions             38.8  Gt  
CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels and cement production excluding CeCS   38.0  Gt  
GCP CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels and cement production excluding CeCS   37.1  Gt 88%
LUC 4.9  Gt 12%
total CO2 emissions             42.0  Gt 100%
Difference total               3.2  Gt  
Difference fossil and cement             -0.9  Gt  
Difference Land-use             4.1  Gt  
Relevant global emissions that must be offset against the remaining CO2 budgets according to the IPCC (GCP): 41.21  Gt  
Using CO₂ emissions including LUC (as defined by the Global Carbon Project) is more appropriate for comparing against the IPCC remaining carbon budgets than using EDGAR values including LULUCF.

The GCP data represent exclusively the anthropogenic CO₂ sources — fossil fuel and industrial emissions plus emissions from land-use change — which is exactly the definition used in the IPCC budget framework. In contrast, EDGAR’s LULUCF category includes large management-related sinks (e.g. forest management, soils under continuous use, harvested wood products). These sinks are accounted for separately as part of the natural land sink in the IPCC carbon budget framework. Using EDGAR LULUCF would therefore double-count these removals and lead to an overestimation of the remaining carbon budget.

GCP uses three sources for LUC emissions, which can vary significantly. GCP uses the average value at global level, which we also use here at national level.
GCP excl. CeCS             41.97 Gt  
ISA -1.24 Gt  
Differences 0.01 Gt  
Basic country data             40.75 Gt  
[1]
AW:
Since IPCC carbon budgets are defined net of the cement carbonation sink (CeCS), while the emission datasets used on national emissions (GCP/EDGAR/EEA) do not include CeCS, the global budget applied in the model is increased by the estimated cumulative CeCS to ensure consistency.
[2]
AW:
GCP uses the average of three databases for LUC (BLUE, OSCAR and LUCE). As individual figures can vary considerably, key figures are provided here.