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Update of remaining global budgets in Gt CO2 |
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Source: |
FORSTER et al.: Indicators of
Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of
the climate system and human influence |
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https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/2641/2025/ |
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See also: |
The Indicators of Global Climate Change initiative
(IGCC) |
https://www.igcc.earth/ |
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Sum
actual emissions 2020 - 2024 |
200 |
Gt |
Source: GCP |
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Remaining
budgets from beginning 2025 (IGCC) |
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Converted to
from 2020 |
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Warming |
Estimated remaining carbon budgets |
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Warming |
Estimated remaining carbon budgets |
|
GtCO2 |
GCP |
IGCC |
EDGAR |
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Probabilities: |
50% |
67% |
83% |
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Probabilities: |
50% |
67% |
83% |
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fossil |
LUC |
total |
fossil |
LULUCF |
total |
fossil |
LULUCF |
total |
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[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2025 on] |
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[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2020 on] |
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2020 |
34,4 |
3,4 |
37,8 |
36,0 |
4,4 |
40,4 |
36,2 |
-0,1 |
36,1 |
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1,5 |
130 |
80 |
30 |
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1,5 |
330 |
280 |
230 |
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2021 |
36,2 |
3,6 |
39,8 |
36,5 |
4,3 |
40,8 |
38,2 |
-0,4 |
37,9 |
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1,6 |
310 |
240 |
160 |
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1,6 |
510 |
440 |
360 |
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2022 |
36,5 |
3,5 |
40,0 |
37,1 |
4,1 |
41,2 |
38,5 |
-0,2 |
38,3 |
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1,7 |
490 |
390 |
290 |
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1,7 |
690 |
590 |
490 |
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2023 |
37,0 |
3,6 |
40,6 |
37,8 |
3,6 |
41,4 |
39,1 |
1,3 |
40,4 |
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1,8 |
680 |
550 |
430 |
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1,8 |
880 |
750 |
630 |
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2024 |
37,4 |
4,2 |
41,6 |
38,2 |
4,2 |
42,4 |
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1,9 |
860 |
710 |
560 |
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1,9 |
1.060 |
910 |
760 |
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total |
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199,8 |
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206,2 |
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2,0 |
1.050 |
870 |
690 |
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2,0 |
1.250 |
1.070 |
890 |
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Budgets IPCC
AR6 |
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Difference to
IGCC budgets |
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Warming |
Estimated remaining carbon budgets |
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Warming |
Difference |
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Warming |
Difference |
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Probabilities: |
50% |
67% |
83% |
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Probabilities: |
50% |
67% |
83% |
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Probabilities: |
50% |
67% |
83% |
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[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2020 on] |
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[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2020 on] |
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[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2020 on] |
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1,5 |
500 |
400 |
300 |
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1,5 |
-170 |
-120 |
-70 |
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1,5 |
-34% |
-30% |
-23% |
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1,6 |
650 |
550 |
400 |
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1,6 |
-140 |
-110 |
-40 |
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1,6 |
-22% |
-20% |
-10% |
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1,7 |
850 |
700 |
550 |
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1,7 |
-160 |
-110 |
-60 |
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1,7 |
-19% |
-16% |
-11% |
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1,8 |
1.000 |
850 |
650 |
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1,8 |
-120 |
-100 |
-20 |
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1,8 |
-12% |
-12% |
-3% |
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1,9 |
1.200 |
1.000 |
800 |
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1,9 |
-140 |
-90 |
-40 |
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1,9 |
-12% |
-9% |
-5% |
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2,0 |
1.350 |
1.150 |
900 |
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2,0 |
-100 |
-80 |
-10 |
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2,0 |
-7% |
-7% |
-1% |
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