Update of remaining global budgets in Gt CO2
Source: FORSTER et al.: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/17/2641/2025/
See also: The Indicators of Global Climate Change initiative (IGCC) https://www.igcc.earth/
Sum actual emissions 2020 - 2024 200 Gt Source: GCP
Remaining budgets from beginning 2025 (IGCC) Converted to from 2020
Warming Estimated remaining carbon budgets Warming Estimated remaining carbon budgets GtCO2 GCP IGCC EDGAR
Probabilities: 50% 67% 83% Probabilities: 50% 67% 83% fossil LUC total fossil LULUCF total fossil LULUCF total
[°C] [GtCO2 from 2025 on] [°C] [GtCO2 from 2020 on] 2020 34,4 3,4 37,8 36,0 4,4 40,4 36,2 -0,1 36,1
1,5 130 80 30 1,5 330 280 230 2021 36,2 3,6 39,8 36,5 4,3 40,8 38,2 -0,4 37,9
1,6 310 240 160 1,6 510 440 360 2022 36,5 3,5 40,0 37,1 4,1 41,2 38,5 -0,2 38,3
1,7 490 390 290 1,7 690 590 490 2023 37,0 3,6 40,6 37,8 3,6 41,4 39,1 1,3 40,4
1,8 680 550 430 1,8 880 750 630 2024 37,4 4,2 41,6 38,2 4,2 42,4  
1,9 860 710 560 1,9 1.060 910 760 total     199,8     206,2      
2,0 1.050 870 690 2,0 1.250 1.070 890
Budgets IPCC AR6 Difference to IGCC budgets
Warming Estimated remaining carbon budgets Warming Difference Warming Difference
Probabilities: 50% 67% 83% Probabilities: 50% 67% 83% Probabilities: 50% 67% 83%
[°C] [GtCO2 from 2020 on] [°C] [GtCO2 from 2020 on] [°C] [GtCO2 from 2020 on]
1,5 500 400 300 1,5 -170 -120 -70 1,5 -34% -30% -23%
1,6 650 550 400 1,6 -140 -110 -40 1,6 -22% -20% -10%
1,7 850 700 550 1,7 -160 -110 -60 1,7 -19% -16% -11%
1,8 1.000 850 650 1,8 -120 -100 -20 1,8 -12% -12% -3%
1,9 1.200 1.000 800 1,9 -140 -90 -40 1,9 -12% -9% -5%
2,0 1.350 1.150 900 2,0 -100 -80 -10 2,0 -7% -7% -1%