3.67
input fields base data results Calculations for a freely selectable country on the GCP database (excluding ISA).
Carbon carbonation sink (CeCS) is not taken into account.[1]		 B_i_cor
select a country in the 'EU EEA-GCP' sheet EU27
Calculation of national budgets with a given weighting of the population                
explicit weighting popluation 50% C LUC Consensus Score (CS) 2019 0%[2]
LUC Coefficient of Variation (CV) 2019[3] 3.0[4]
LUC 2019 in M t -10.60
LUC-R 2019 in M t 76.06
A. Distribution of the global budget from 2020 (BY = 2019):   share LUC 2019 0.4%
global budget from 2020 on (B_global): 669  Gt  total CO2 budget from 2020 on:  650  Gt
2020 - 2100
share selected country in global population 2019 5.750% national budgets 38.467  Gt ► weighting 100% population in 2019 443.42  M P_i_BY
share selected country in global emissions 2019 6.896% 46.132  Gt ► weighting 100% emissions in 2019 2,894.35  M t E_i_BY
per capita emissions 6.53  t
per capita global 5.44  t
weighted key   6.323% weighting population 50%
national CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 (B_i) 42.299  Gt scope:  14.6  years 43.75
year emissions neutrality in a linear emissions path with no net negative emissions:     2050
B. Distribution of the global budget from 2016 (BY = 2016):  
global budget to distribute here from 2016 on (B_global): 830  Gt  total CO2 budget from 2020 on:  650  Gt
2016 - 2100
share selected country in global population 2016 5.927% national budgets 49.178  Gt ► weighting 100% population in 2016 442.40  M P_i_BY
share selected country in global emissions 2016 7.497% 62.213  Gt ► weighting 100% emissions in 2016 3,056.62  M t E_i_BY
per capita emissions 6.91  t
weighted key   6.712% weighting population 50%      
national CO2 budget 2016 - 2100 (B_i) 55.696  Gt weighting population 50%
- emissions of the selected country 2016 - 2019     -12.091  Gt
national CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 43.604  Gt scope:  15.1  years 45.13
year emissions neutrality in a linear emissions path with no net negative emissions:     2051
Remaining national budgets taking into account actual emissions after 2019                
Country selected: EU27
  A (2020) B (2016)    A: Distribution of the global budget from 2020 weighting population 50%
national budget from 2020 on 42.299 43.604  Gt  B: Distribution of the global budget from 2016
- actual emissions 2020 -2.5937  Gt  global budget from 2020 on 650  Gt
- actual emissions 2021 -2.7885  Gt  
- actual emissions 2022 -2.7062  Gt  
- actual emissions 2023 -2.4530  Gt
- actual emissions 2024 -2.3904  Gt
national budget from 2025 on 29.368 30.673  Gt 30.56 31.87
year emissions neutrality 2050 2051  linear emissions path with no net negative emissions; start year: 2020
2050 2051 2025
Which emissions do the national budgets cover here?                    
The national budgets refer to all anthropogenic CO2 emissions exlusive ISA. GCP uses three different sources for LUC, which can vary significantly. The mean value was used here, as GCP also does at the global level.
The global budget to be allocated here has been calculated accordingly (see the ‘base data global budget' sheet).
Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM)                      
Basic idea behind the ESPM:
1. National budgets: A predefined global CO2 budget is distributed to countries. The ESPM offers the weighted distribution key also used here for this purpose.
2. National paths: The ESPM offers the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1 - 6 to derive plausible national paths that adhere to a national budget.
Wep app                        
The national budgets calculated here can be used in the following web application to calculate different national emission paths that all adhere to the given budget:
https://paths.climate-calculator.info
See the ‘Data export’ sheet for the data required there.
Excel tool                        
To be able to make more detailed settings and have more options, such as taking into account actual emissions after 2019, please refer to the Excel tool, which can be downloaded here (necessary data see below or use the sheet "Data export"):
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4568839
See the "Data export" sheet for easy copying of data from this tool into the universal tool.
Calculation of the Implicit Weighting of the Population (IWP) for a given national budget (BY = 2019)          
global budget from 2020 on (B_global): 669  Gt  total CO2 budget from 2020 on:  650  Gt
2020 - 2100 country: EU27
share selected country in global population 2019 5.750% national budgets 38.467  Gt ► weighting 100% population in 2019 443.4  M P_i_BY
share selected country in global emissions 2019 6.896% 46.132  Gt ► weighting 100% emissions in 2019 2,894.3  M t E_i_BY
per capita emissions 6.53  t
per capita global 5.44  t
national CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 (B_i) 43.00  Gt This value can be determined, for example, on the basis of an NDC or national climate legislation. 44.45
see above which emissions are covered here
Implicit Weighting Population (IWP) 41% C
weighted key 6.43%
scope of the national budget:         14.9  years
year emissions neutrality in a linear emissions path with no net negative emissions:   2051
[1]
AW:
For LUC, GCP uses three different sources, some of which provide significantly different values. The average is used.
[2]
AW:
Interpretation:

    CS > 0.8 (80%): High Consensus. The models provide very similar results; the national budget allocation is highly reliable.

    CS 0.4 – 0.8: Moderate Consensus. There is a noticeable spread, suggesting the budget should be viewed as a corridor.

    CS < 0.4 (40%): Low Consensus. The models deviate significantly. This often occurs in transition periods (e.g., EU 1990s) where inventory data and bookkeeping models reflect different historical dynamics.
[3]
AW:
GCP uses the average of three databases for LUC (BLUE, OSCAR and LUCE).
[4]
AW:
Interpretation of Values:

    Low CV (< 0.2 / 20%): High model convergence. The scientific calculations are highly consistent; the derived national budget is based on a robust data foundation.

    Moderate CV (0.2 – 0.5 / 20% – 50%): Significant discrepancies between models. The resulting budget should be understood as a corridor with a degree of uncertainty.

    High CV (> 0.5 / > 50%): Strong theoretical discrepancies between models. This often occurs in regions with complex land-use dynamics or insufficient historical inventory data.

    Extreme CV (> 1.0 / > 100%): These values typically occur when a country's net emissions are near zero or when models contradict each other regarding the sign (i.e., one model calculates a carbon sink while another calculates a source). In these instances, the mean (μ) is statistically unstable ("Low Agreement on Sign"), leading to mathematically outsized CV values.