3.67
input fields base data results Calculations for the EU on the EEA database (including LULUCF and ISA). Global emissions are based on GCP including LUC (simplifying assumption: LUC = LULUCF).[1] B_i_cor
select a country: EU27
Calculation of national budgets with a given weighting of the population                
explicit weighting popluation 50% C
A. Distribution of the global budget from 2020 (BY = 2019):  
global budget from 2020 on (B_global): 690  Gt  total CO2 budget from 2020 on:  650  Gt
2020 - 2100
share selected country in global population 2019 5.79% national budgets 39.96  Gt ► weighting 100% population in 2019 446.6  M P_i_BY
share selected country in global emissions 2019 7.07% 48.78  Gt ► weighting 100% emissions in 2019 2,913.3  M t E_i_BY
per capita emissions 6.52  t
per capita global 5.34  t
weighted key   6.43% weighting population 50%
national CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 (B_i) 44.371  Gt scope:  15.2  years 45.83
year emissions neutrality in a linear emissions path with no net negative emissions:     2051
B. Distribution of the global budget from 2016 (BY = 2016):  
global budget to distribute here from 2016 on (B_global): 856  Gt  total CO2 budget from 2020 on:  650  Gt
2016 - 2100
share selected country in global population 2016 5.95% national budgets 50.93  Gt ► weighting 100% population in 2016 444.3  M P_i_BY
share selected country in global emissions 2016 7.46% 63.87  Gt ► weighting 100% emissions in 2016 2,990.5  M t E_i_BY
per capita emissions 6.73  t
weighted key   6.71% weighting population 50%      
national CO2 budget 2016 - 2100 (B_i) 57.40  Gt weighting population 50%
- emissions of the selected country 2016 - 2019     -12.03  Gt
national CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 45.367  Gt scope:  15.6  years 46.86
year emissions neutrality in a linear emissions path with no net negative emissions:     2052
Remaining national budgets taking into account actual emissions after 2019                
Country selected: EU27
  A (2020) B (2016)    A: Distribution of the global budget from 2020 weighting population 50%
national budget from 2020 on 44.371 45.367  Gt  B: Distribution of the global budget from 2016
- actual emissions 2020 -2.5398  Gt  global budget from 2020 on 690  Gt
- actual emissions 2021 -2.7466  Gt  
- actual emissions 2022 -2.7301  Gt  
- actual emissions 2023 -2.4752  Gt
- actual emissions 2024 -2.4119  Gt
national budget from 2025 on 31.467 32.463  Gt 32.67 33.67
year emissions neutrality 2051 2052  linear emissions path with no net negative emissions; start year: 2020
2052 2053 2025
       
Which emissions do the national budgets cover here?                    
The national CO2 budgets cover all anthropogenic CO2 emissions (use of fossil fuels including ISA, cement production and land use).
Limitations of the results:
EEA, EDGAR and UBA are using LULUCF for land use.
However, LUC should be offset against the CO2 budgets according to the IPCC. But LUC is not reported.
For global emissions, LUC was taken into account according to the GCP.
This results in an inconsistency in the data used (see the ‘base data global budget’ sheet for the differences).
Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM)                      
Basic idea behind the ESPM:
1. National budgets: A predefined global CO2 budget is distributed to countries. The ESPM offers the weighted distribution key also used here for this purpose.
2. National paths: The ESPM offers the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1 - 6 to derive plausible national paths that adhere to a national budget.
Wep app                        
The national budgets calculated here can be used in the following web application to calculate different national emission paths that all adhere to the given budget:
https://paths.climate-calculator.info
See the ‘Data export’ sheet for the data required there.
Excel tool                        
To be able to make more detailed settings and have more options, such as taking into account actual emissions after 2019, please refer to the Excel tool, which can be downloaded here (necessary data see below or use the sheet "Data export"):
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4568839
See the "Data export" sheet for easy copying of data from this tool into the universal tool.
Paper: EU and Germany                      
The paper "Calculation of Paris-compatible Emission Targets for the EU and Germany with the Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM)" shows exemplary emission targets under different global frameworks and can be downloaded here:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5678717
Calculation of the Implicit Weighting of the Population (IWP) for a given national budget (BY = 2019)          
global budget from 2020 on (B_global): 690  Gt  total CO2 budget from 2020 on:  650  Gt
2020 - 2100 country: EU27
share selected country in global population 2019 5.79% national budgets 39.96  Gt ► weighting 100% population in 2019 446.6  M P_i_BY
share selected country in global emissions 2019 7.07% 48.78  Gt ► weighting 100% emissions in 2019 2,913.3  M t E_i_BY
per capita emissions 6.52  t
per capita global 5.34  t
national CO2 budget 2020 - 2100 (B_i) 45.00  Gt This value can be determined, for example, on the basis of the EU's NDC or national climate legislation. 46.46
see above which emissions are covered here
Implicit Weighting Population (IWP) 43% C
weighted key 6.52%
scope of the national budget:         15.4  years
year emissions neutrality in a linear emissions path with no net negative emissions:   2052
Deriving an implicit CO2 budget from Germany's climate protection law:                  
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6535174
[1]
AW:
To calculate the share of the EU or EU member states in global emissions, the emissions according to the EEA are set in relation to global CO2 emissions according to the GCP.

Restriction:

The EEA shows LULUCF emissions and GCP LUC emissions.

For simplicity, it is assumed here that LUC = LULUCF.

However, LUC emissions according to GCP would have to be offset against the IPCC budgets (see  “base data global budget” sheet).