Overview results ESPM and RM for the largest emitters

- reference values for NDCs -

 

global budget:

420 Gt

680 Gt

420 Gt

680 Gt

 

Extended Smooth Pathway Model

Regensburg Model

 

weighting population

change rate 2030 vs. 1990

CO2 budget 2020 - 2100

change rate 2030 vs. 1990

CO2 budget 2020 - 2100

change rate 2030 vs. 1990

CO2 budget 2020 - 2100

change rate 2030 vs. 1990

CO2 budget 2020 - 2100

 

 

 

in Gt

 

in Gt

 

in Gt

 

in Gt

China

50%

108%

69

161%

123

128%

81

196%

146

15%

122%

81

184%

144

USA

50%

-58%

26

-46%

46

-50%

36

-35%

66

15%

-51%

36

-39%

64

EU28

50%

-66%

22

-56%

39

-63%

24

-52%

44

15%

-63%

25

-55%

44

India

50%

167%

35

239%

62

143%

25

199%

42

15%

134%

25

194%

44

Russia

50%

-70%

9

-60%

17

-64%

12

-53%

22

15%

-66%

12

-55%

22

Japan

50%

-57%

7

-45%

12

-51%

8

-36%

15

15%

-53%

8

-40%

15

 

implicit weighting population:

15%

11%

 

largest emitters

China

USA

EU28

India

Russia

Japan

sum

global

current annual CO2 emissions in Gt

11

5

3

3

2

1

  25

37

share in global emissions

31%

14%

9%

7%

5%

3%

70%

 

t per capita

8

16

7

2

12

9

 

5

 

Key premises:

RM-5-rad was used as the scenario type, which maps the global paths described by the IPCC (cf. SR15, SPM, C.1) well and minimizes the need for net negative emissions.

16% of the global CO2 budget has been reserved for FOLU CO2 and international shipping and aviation, which is roughly their share of current annual emissions. These emissions were not considered here.

12% of the current annual emissions were assumed to be the minimum for annual net negative emissions after the achievement of emission neutrality.

More information and download of the tools at: save-the-climate.info.