Overview results ESPM and RM for the largest emitters

- reference values for NDCs -

 

global budget:

420 Gt

680 Gt

420 Gt

680 Gt

 

Extended Smooth Pathway Model

Regensburg Model

 

weighting population

change rate 2030 vs. 1990

CO2 budget 2020 - 2100

change rate 2030 vs. 1990

CO2 budget 2020 - 2100

change rate 2030 vs. 1990

CO2 budget 2020 - 2100

change rate 2030 vs. 1990

CO2 budget 2020 - 2100

 

 

 

in Gt

 

in Gt

 

in Gt

 

in Gt

China

50%

108%

69

161%

123

128%

81

196%

146

15%

122%

81

184%

144

USA

50%

-58%

26

-46%

46

-50%

36

-35%

66

15%

-51%

36

-39%

64

EU28

50%

-66%

22

-56%

39

-63%

24

-52%

44

15%

-63%

25

-55%

44

India

50%

167%

35

239%

62

143%

25

199%

42

15%

134%

25

194%

44

Russia

50%

-70%

9

-60%

17

-64%

12

-53%

22

15%

-66%

12

-55%

22

Japan

50%

-57%

7

-45%

12

-51%

8

-36%

15

15%

-53%

8

-40%

15

 

implicit weighting population:

15%

11%

 

largest emitters

China

USA

EU28

India

Russia

Japan

sum

global

current annual CO2 emissions in Gt

11

5

3

3

2

1

  25

37

share in global emissions

31%

14%

9%

7%

5%

3%

70%

 

t per capita

8

16

7

2

12

9

 

5

 

Key premises:

RM-5-rad was used as the scenario type, which maps the necessary global paths described by the IPCC well and minimizes the need for net negative emissions.

16% of the global budget has been reserved for AFOLU and international shipping and aviation, which is roughly their share of current annual emissions. These emissions were not considered here.

12% of the current annual emissions were assumed to be the minimum for annual net negative emissions after the achievement of emission neutrality.

More information and download of the tools at: save-the-climate.info.