Nachbesserungsprozess
(ratchet up mechanism)
von Paris

Das Pariser Abkommen hält die Tür zur Unterschreitung des 2°C-Limits einen kleinen Spalt offen. Jetzt kommt es darauf an, diese Chance zu nutzen. Entscheidend ist dabei der vereinbarte Nachbesserungsprozess. In Paris wurde vereinbart, dass die Staaten immer ehrgeizigere national entschiedene Beiträge (NDCs) beim UNFCCC vorlegen sollen. 2018 soll es eine erste Überprüfung der Anstrengungen geben (Nr. 22 Draft decisions); 2023 eine erste große Inventur (Artikel 14), ob die nationalen Ziele in Summe mit den Zielen des Pariser Klimaabkommens vereinbar sind. Zu den bereits im Vorlauf des Pariser Abkommens eingereichten nationalen Beiträgen hat das UN-Sekretariat mit einem Synthesebericht Stellung genommen (hier unser kurzes Statement dazu). Das Ergebnis: Die eingereichten nationalen Beiträge sind ein Fortschritt; aber sie reichen bei weitem noch nicht aus, um die Zwei-Grad-Grenze zu unterschreiten.

Nach unserer Einschätzung ist 2023 viel zu spät, um in die Weichen in Richtung Dekarbonisierung zu stellen. Daher sollten jetzt alle Bemühungen darauf gerichtet werden, dass möglichst schnell die Staaten Langfristambitionen vorlegen, die in Summe mit dem 2°C-Limit kompatibel sind. Wir brauchen jetzt glaubwürdige politischen Entscheidungen, damit die Investitionen in eine fossilfreie Zukunft ausreichend in Gang kommen. Je später diese Entscheidungen fallen, desto teurer wird es und desto größer wird die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass wir scheitern.

Wir brauchen einen Review auch durch die Zivilgesellschaft

Nun ist es entscheidend, dass die Zivilgesellschaft in Verbund mit der Wissenschaft mit konkreten und fundierten Forderungen gegenüber der Politik genügend öffentlichen Druck aufbaut, so dass die Staaten einen fairen Anteil an den notwendigen globalen Anstrengungen übernehmen. Es muss eine öffentliche Diskussion darüber in Gang kommen, was eine faire und ökonomisch sinnvolle Aufteilung des verbleibenden globalen CO2-Budgets auf Staaten sein könnte.

Hier ein kurzes Hintergrundpapier zu diesem Thema.

Grundlage für einen Review-Prozess sind Referenzwerte

Eigentlich würde es die Budgeteigenschaft von CO2 besser abbilden, wenn man darüber diskutieren würde, welcher Anteil des global verbleibenden Budgets einzelnen Staaten zustehen könnte. In der Klimadiplomatie hat es sich jedoch eingebürgert, die Emissionen zu einem gewissen Zeitpunkt in der Zukunft Beziehung zu setzen zu Emissionenn in der Vergangenheit.

Was braucht man, um für alle Staaten Referenzwerte auf dieser Basis berechnen zu können?

  1. Die Referenzwerte müssen aus nationalen Emissionspfaden abgeleitet werden, die in Summe mit der Unterschreitung des 2°C-Limits kompatibel sind.
  2. Für die Ableitung der nationalen Emissionspfade, muss man sich der Frage der Klimagerechtigkeit stellen. Nach welchen Schlüsseln sollen die globalen Emissionen auf Staaten verteilt werden bzw. an welchen Schlüsseln sollen sich die Staaten bei ihren Angeboten orientieren?

Wir möchten auf die Website http://climateactiontracker.org/ hinweisen. Dort werden die NDCs mit Kriterien aus vielen unterschiedlichen Studien und Ansätzen abgeglichen.

Hier wollen wir zwei Konzepte und entsprechende Referenzwerte vorstellen, die nicht in die Vergangenheit schauen und keinen komplexen Mix an Kriterien heranziehen, sondern einerseits die aktuellen Emissionen eines Landes (und damit die derzeitige Realität) und annderseits die Pro-Kopf-Emissionen, um Klimagerechtigkeit abzubilden.

Referenzwerte mit der Regensburger Formel

Bei der Regensburger Formel wird die Frage der Klimagerechtigkeit mit der Konvergenz der Pro-Kopf-Emissionen beantwortet (wurde von Bundeskanzlerin Merkel bereits 2007 postuliert). Mit der Regensburger Formel wird schrittweise der Verteilungsschlüssel "tatsächliche Emissionen im Basisjahr" durch den Verteilungsschlüssel "gleiche Pro-Kopf-Emissionen im Konvergenzjahr" ersetzt (mehr Informationen unter: Downloads).

Die Regensburger Formel setzt damit nur ein relativ niedriges Niveau an Klimagerechtigkeit um. Insbesondere wird bei einer Konvergenz der Pro-Kopf-Rechte die historische Verantwortung der heutigen Industrieländer für den Klimawandel nicht berücksichtigt und die Erreichung von gleichen Pro-Kopf-Rechten in die Zukunft mit niedrigeren Pro-Kopf-Emissionen verschoben.

Vor diesem Hintergrund haben die Referenzwerte auf der Grundlage der Regensburger Formel gerade dann eine hohe Aussagekraft, wenn selbst dieses geringe Ambitionsniveau von Industrieländern bei ihren gemeldeten nationalen Beiträgen (NDCs) im Rahmen des Pariser Nachbesserungsprozesses noch unterschritten wird. Diese Industriestaaten kommen in Erklärungsnot, welchen Standard sie in puncto Klimagerechtigkeit zu Grunde legen.

Zusammenfassung Regensburger Formel:

Wir bieten Ihnen drei Wege zu den Referenzwerten für ein bestimmtes Land nach der Regensburger Formel an:

  1. Ausführliches Excel-Tool zum Regensburger Modell (Download hier)

    In diesem Tool sind viele Detaileinstellungen möglich und es werden fünf Szenariotypen für den globalen Pfad angeboten. Außerdem können Sie alle Berechnungen und die Quellen der verwendeten Daten nachvollziehen. Neben der Regensurger Formel wird in diesem Tool jetzt auch das Smooth Pathway Model von Raupach et al. abgebildet. Exemplarische Emissionspfade und Referenzwerte zeigen wir hier.

  2. Vereinfachtes Tool zum Regensburger Modell (Webanwendung)

    In diesem vereinfachten Tool können in einer zentralen Maske die wichtigsten Einstellungen vorgenommen werden und Sie können sofort die sich ergebenden Referenzwerte für ein ausgewähltes Land ablesen (die dortigen Ergebnisse basieren allerdings noch auf dem Datenstand von 2015):

    www.climate-calculator.info.

  3. Tabellen mit beispielhaften Referenzwerten auf dieser Website mit Offenlegung der dahinter stehenden Annahmen

Annahmen für die Referenzwerte nach dem Regensburger Modell

Den Referenzwerten nach der Regensburger Formel, die in den nachfolgenden Tabellen angegeben werden, liegen bestimmte Annahmen (Download als PDF hier) zu Grunde, die Sie bei Verwendung des Excel-Tools alle und in der vereinfachten Webanwendung zum Teil auch verändern können. In der Browservorschau des Excel-Tools (siehe Downloads) können Sie im Register "output countries" weitere Referenzwerte sehen mit den dort hinterlegten Annahmen vorallem im Register "base data". Dabei werden Sie auch sehen, dass sich die Größenordnung nicht wesentlich ändert, da die Rahmendaten, um die 2°C-Grenze noch zu unterschreiten, sehr eng sind.

Referenzwerte nach dem Smooth Pathway Model (SPM) von Raupach et al.

Länder nach Emissionen im Jahr 2019 sortiert

Die größten Emittenten, die zusamen 80% der globalen Emissionen verursachen. Basisdaten für Hochrechnung der Emissionen in 2019 siehe Tabelle Länder alphabetich geordnet.

Referenzwerte nach dem Regensburger Modell
(moralische Untergrenze für Industrieländer)

 
2030
2050
projection 2019
in Mill. t
per captia emissions 2019 in t
proportion in relation to global emissions 
cumulative emissions without EU
 vs. (in %)
1990
2010
1990
2010
China
205%
-22%
-68%
-92%
10.856,23
7,60
30,93%
31%
United States of America
-34%
-40%
-95%
-95%
5.191,58
15,48
14,79%
46%
EU28
-51%
-45%
-94%
-94%
3.332,95
6,56
9,49%
46%
India
169%
-6%
-33%
-77%
2.554,65
1,91
7,28%
53%
Russian Federation
-57%
-40%
-96%
-95%
1.624,10
11,56
4,63%
58%
Japan
-35%
-38%
-94%
-94%
1.177,66
9,37
3,35%
61%
Germany
-54%
-42%
-95%
-94%
734,01
8,95
2,09%
63%
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
118%
-23%
-78%
-92%
684,83
8,22
1,95%
65%
Korea, Republic of
47%
-34%
-87%
-94%
622,41
12,30
1,77%
67%
Canada
-21%
-35%
-94%
-95%
553,15
14,84
1,58%
68%
Saudi Arabia
107%
-17%
-84%
-94%
546,31
17,13
1,56%
70%
Indonesia
131%
-13%
-45%
-79%
543,50
2,04
1,55%
71%
Brazil
60%
-17%
-67%
-83%
525,42
2,51
1,50%
73%
Australia
10%
-27%
-92%
-95%
482,32
19,19
1,37%
74%
Mexico
3%
-33%
-83%
-89%
453,59
3,47
1,29%
76%
South Africa
-2%
-36%
-90%
-93%
432,18
7,88
1,23%
77%
Turkey
64%
-18%
-78%
-89%
385,94
4,85
1,10%
78%
United Kingdom
-64%
-57%
-95%
-94%
324,60
4,97
0,92%
79%
Thailand
113%
-19%
-70%
-89%
301,76
4,45
0,86%
80%

Referenzwerete nach dem Smooth Pathway Model
(gewichteter Verteilungsschlüssel: Bevölkerung und Emissionen in 2019 zu je 50% gewichtet)

sorted acc. to proportion global emissions
2030
2050
projection 2019
in Mill. t
per captia emissions 2019 in t
proportion in relation to global emissions 
cumulative emissions without EU
 vs. (in %)
1990
2010
1990
2010
China
131%
-41%
-82%
-95%
10.856,23
7,60
30,93%
31%
United States of America
-61%
-65%
-98%
-99%
5.191,58
15,48
14,79%
46%
EU28
-61%
-56%
-96%
-95%
3.332,95
6,56
9,49%
46%
India
227%
15%
23%
-57%
2.554,65
1,91
7,28%
53%
Russian Federation
-72%
-62%
-98%
-98%
1.624,10
11,56
4,63%
58%
Japan
-55%
-57%
-97%
-97%
1.177,66
9,37
3,35%
61%
Germany
-67%
-59%
-97%
-97%
734,01
8,95
2,09%
63%
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
61%
-43%
-90%
-96%
684,83
8,22
1,95%
65%
Korea, Republic of
-7%
-58%
-95%
-98%
622,41
12,30
1,77%
67%
Canada
-53%
-62%
-98%
-98%
553,15
14,84
1,58%
68%
Saudi Arabia
17%
-53%
-96%
-99%
546,31
17,13
1,56%
70%
Indonesia
185%
7%
-5%
-64%
543,50
2,04
1,55%
71%
Brazil
86%
-3%
-50%
-74%
525,42
2,51
1,50%
73%
Australia
-40%
-60%
-98%
-99%
482,32
19,19
1,37%
74%
Mexico
2%
-34%
-77%
-85%
453,59
3,47
1,29%
76%
South Africa
-26%
-52%
-95%
-96%
432,18
7,88
1,23%
77%
Turkey
50%
-25%
-82%
-91%
385,94
4,85
1,10%
78%
United Kingdom
-71%
-65%
-94%
-93%
324,60
4,97
0,92%
79%
Thailand
102%
-23%
-72%
-89%
301,76
4,45
0,86%
80%

 

Länder alphabetisch geordnet

Referenzwerte nach dem Regensburger Modell

  2030 2050 base year projection 2019 % p.a. for projection 2019 projection 2019
in Mill. t
per captia emissions 2019 in t
 vs. (in %) 1990 2010 1990 2010
Afghanistan 358% 48% 357% 48% 2015 2,0% 9,36 0,27
Albania -49% -18% -85% -75% 2015 2,0% 4,80 1,48
Algeria 58% -9% -75% -86% 2015 2,0% 159,60 3,69
American Samoa no data no data no data no data        
Andorra no data no data no data no data        
Angola 75% -22% -28% -68% 2015 1,9% 24,84 0,97
Anguilla 238% -14% -19% -79% 2015 2,0% 0,03 2,00
Antigua and Barbuda 16% -19% -84% -89% 2015 2,0% 0,43 4,55
Argentina 14% -34% -84% -91% 2015 -0,1% 190,60 4,38
Armenia -85% -24% -95% -78% 2015 -0,8% 4,49 1,50
Aruba -55% -32% -91% -87% 2015 2,0% 0,28 2,70
Australia 10% -27% -92% -95% 2015 2,0% 482,32 19,19
Austria -24% -38% -92% -94% 2015 -0,3% 73,46 8,46
Azerbaiyesn -56% -5% -93% -85% 2015 2,0% 35,36 3,55
Bahamas 8% -19% -90% -93% 2015 2,0% 4,36 10,76
Bahrain 19% -20% -91% -94% 2015 2,0% 23,93 16,43
Bangladesh 377% 8% 237% -24% 2015 2,0% 77,11 0,46
Barbados 4% -21% -87% -90% 2015 2,0% 1,54 5,24
Belarus -63% -43% -96% -94% 2015 -1,3% 61,60 6,79
Belgium -47% -45% -95% -94% 2015 -0,6% 94,81 8,37
Belize 47% -22% -73% -86% 2015 2,0% 1,10 2,91
Benin 1221% 2% 754% -34% 2015 2,0% 6,28 0,52
Bermuda -24% -18% -93% -92% 2015 2,0% 0,63 9,59
Bhutan 59% 0% -63% -77% 2015 2,0% 1,72 2,12
Bolivia 112% -11% -42% -76% 2015 2,0% 19,58 1,67
Bosnia and Herzegovina -36% -31% -93% -92% 2015 -0,5% 24,16 6,36
Botswana 66% -5% -73% -84% 2015 2,0% 7,50 3,52
Brazil 60% -17% -67% -83% 2015 2,0% 525,42 2,51
British Virgin Islands 41% -19% -76% -86% 2015 2,0% 0,10 3,30
Brunei Darussalam 70% -22% -87% -94% 2015 2,0% 8,92 19,87
Bulgaria -57% -27% -96% -92% 2015 0,7% 55,05 8,00
Burkina Faso 387% 68% 623% 149% 2015 1,5% 2,47 0,12
Burundi 360% 112% 656% 249% 2015 2,0% 1,17 0,10
Cambodia 468% 27% 387% 9% 2015 2,0% 5,72 0,34
Cameroon 122% 1% 55% -30% 2015 2,0% 12,01 0,47
Canada -21% -35% -94% -95% 2015 -0,1% 553,15 14,84
Cape Verde 167% 38% 212% 61% 2015 2,0% 0,11 0,20
Cayman Islands 16% -19% -87% -91% 2015 2,0% 0,40 6,44
Central African Republic 277% 88% 482% 189% 2015 2,0% 0,59 0,11
Chad 509% 129% 884% 269% 2015 2,0% 1,53 0,10
Channel Islands no data no data no data no data        
Chile 70% -23% -77% -89% 2015 1,7% 86,79 4,69
China 205% -22% -68% -92% 2015 0,5% 10.856,23 7,60
China, Hong Kong SAR -21% -35% -90% -92% 2015 -1,7% 42,59 5,67
China, Macao SAR 190% -11% -61% -88% 2015 2,0% 2,92 4,73
China, Taiwan Province of 47% -32% -87% -94% 2015 0,9% 289,28 12,28
Colombia 15% -6% -69% -75% 2015 2,0% 87,49 1,69
Comoros 249% 67% 392% 135% 2015 2,0% 0,12 0,14
Congo 73% -23% -30% -69% 2015 2,0% 5,12 1,00
Cook Islands 176% -15% -24% -77% 2015 2,0% 0,04 1,65
Costa Rica 113% -15% -43% -77% 2015 2,0% 8,95 1,71
Cote d'Ivoire 215% 25% 123% -12% 2015 2,0% 10,69 0,46
Croatia -46% -34% -93% -91% 2015 0,5% 20,92 4,98
Cuba -33% -20% -89% -86% 2015 2,0% 37,24 3,33
Curaçao no data no data no data no data        
Cyprus -27% -59% -89% -94% 2015 -5,0% 5,02 4,15
Czech Republic -63% -48% -96% -95% 2015 -2,9% 98,77 9,06
Dem. Rep. of the Congo 237% 268% 522% 580% 2015 2,0% 5,33 0,07
Denmark -63% -59% -95% -95% 2015 -5,0% 30,06 5,23
Djibouti 45% -9% -62% -76% 2015 2,0% 1,70 1,79
Dominica 57% -18% -68% -83% 2015 2,0% 0,18 2,49
Dominican Republic 120% -15% -53% -82% 2015 2,0% 26,23 2,36
Ecuador 82% -17% -64% -84% 2015 2,0% 45,11 2,63
Egypt 67% -28% -66% -85% 2015 -0,2% 224,91 2,50
El Salvador 122% -14% -24% -70% 2015 2,0% 8,06 1,22
Equatorial Guinea 2056% -43% 339% -88% 2015 0,0% 2,24 2,52
Eritrea 2387% 137% 4024% 294% 2015 2,0% 0,70 0,09
Estonia -46% 8% -96% -92% 2015 2,0% 31,61 24,99
Ethiopia 631% 178% 1091% 354% 2015 2,0% 10,68 0,10
EU28 -51% -45% -94% -94% 2015 -1,0% 3.332,95 6,56
Faeroe Islands no data no data no data no data        
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 24% -17% -90% -93% 2015 2,0% 0,05 15,65
Fiji 92% -5% -50% -75% 2015 2,0% 1,63 1,78
Finland -55% -62% -95% -96% 2015 -5,0% 39,51 7,15
France -51% -51% -93% -93% 2015 -3,3% 286,33 4,32
French Guiana 43% -21% -81% -90% 2015 2,0% 1,46 5,10
French Polynesia 39% -8% -76% -84% 2015 2,0% 0,94 3,21
Gabon -32% -27% -88% -87% 2015 2,0% 5,66 2,96
Gambia 306% 78% 504% 165% 2015 2,0% 0,27 0,12
Georgia -85% -8% -96% -76% 2015 1,3% 7,55 1,79
Germany -54% -42% -95% -94% 2015 -1,4% 734,01 8,95
Ghana 317% 16% 158% -28% 2015 2,0% 16,12 0,55
Gibraltar 141% -28% -82% -95% 2015 2,0% 0,54 18,48
Greece -54% -59% -94% -95% 2015 -5,0% 55,62 5,02
Greenland no data no data no data no data        
Grenada 147% -30% -68% -91% 2015 2,0% 0,55 5,09
Guadeloupe 25% -24% -84% -90% 2015 2,0% 2,47 5,17
Guam no data no data no data no data        
Guatemala 200% -1% 33% -56% 2015 2,0% 15,71 0,88
Guinea 147% 59% 222% 107% 2015 2,0% 2,24 0,16
Guinea-Bissau 175% 47% 247% 86% 2015 2,0% 0,34 0,18
Guyana 26% -23% -81% -88% 2015 2,0% 3,19 3,88
Haiti 138% 24% 163% 37% 2015 2,0% 2,52 0,23
Holy See no data no data no data no data        
Honduras 204% -11% 15% -67% 2015 2,0% 9,81 1,08
Hungary -57% -41% -94% -92% 2015 -0,8% 46,65 4,75
Iceland 15% -27% -90% -94% 2015 2,0% 4,19 11,93
India 169% -6% -33% -77% 2015 1,0% 2.554,65 1,91
Indonesia 131% -13% -45% -79% 2015 2,0% 543,50 2,04
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 118% -23% -78% -92% 2015 2,0% 684,83 8,22
Iraq 70% -7% -76% -87% 2015 2,0% 173,57 4,37
Ireland -26% -43% -92% -94% 2015 0,4% 37,25 7,57
Isle of Man no data no data no data no data        
Israel 4% -48% -88% -94% 2015 -3,6% 56,70 6,76
Italy -56% -56% -94% -94% 2015 -5,0% 287,43 4,68
Jamaica -13% -17% -86% -86% 2015 2,0% 9,92 3,46
Japan -35% -38% -94% -94% 2015 -1,5% 1.177,66 9,37
Jordan 61% -21% -71% -86% 2015 2,0% 24,78 3,09
Kazakhstan -26% -26% -94% -94% 2015 2,0% 289,58 16,66
Kenya 141% 17% 117% 5% 2015 2,0% 16,43 0,32
Kiribati 114% 21% 55% -12% 2015 2,0% 0,05 0,44
Korea, Dem. People's Rep. -66% -34% -93% -87% 2015 2,0% 68,07 2,65
Korea, Republic of 47% -34% -87% -94% 2015 0,2% 622,41 12,30
Kuwait 100% -26% -86% -95% 2015 1,6% 101,25 25,74
Kyrgyzstan -80% -4% -92% -64% 2015 -1,6% 6,60 1,09
Lao People's Dem. Rep. 160% 25% 54% -26% 2015 2,0% 4,44 0,59
Latvia -73% -36% -96% -91% 2015 1,1% 8,34 4,20
Lebanon 147% -28% -66% -90% 2015 1,1% 22,56 4,59
Lesotho 215% 57% 321% 110% 2015 2,0% 0,34 0,16
Liberia 176% 59% 239% 96% 2015 2,0% 0,91 0,18
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya -10% -49% -90% -95% 2015 -1,0% 50,16 7,51
Liechtenstein no data no data no data no data        
Lithuania -81% -50% -97% -92% 2015 -5,0% 10,17 3,45
Luxembourg -48% -46% -96% -96% 2015 -1,8% 9,51 16,68
Macedonia -43% -31% -92% -90% 2015 -0,2% 9,72 4,61
Madagascar 413% 81% 670% 172% 2015 2,0% 3,27 0,12
Malawi 376% 108% 670% 236% 2015 2,0% 1,94 0,10
Malaysia 210% -17% -68% -92% 2015 2,0% 265,15 8,18
Maldives 1248% -6% 142% -83% 2015 2,0% 1,16 3,04
Mali 459% 110% 826% 248% 2015 2,0% 1,73 0,09
Malta -38% -42% -92% -92% 2015 -1,6% 2,21 5,07
Marshall Islands no data no data no data no data        
Martinique 12% -19% -87% -91% 2015 2,0% 2,69 6,58
Mauritania 349% 0% 158% -43% 2015 2,0% 2,74 0,61
Mauritius 144% -19% -53% -84% 2015 2,0% 3,50 2,76
Mayotte no data no data no data no data        
Mexico 3% -33% -83% -89% 2015 -1,0% 453,59 3,47
Micronesia, Federated States of no data no data no data no data        
Monaco no data no data no data no data        
Mongolia -13% -12% -89% -89% 2015 2,0% 17,76 5,77
Montenegro no data no data no data no data        
Montserrat 593% -39% -58% -96% 2015 2,0% 0,34 64,67
Morocco 78% -14% -54% -78% 2015 2,0% 64,02 1,80
Mozambique 447% 66% 591% 110% 2015 2,0% 5,21 0,17
Myanmar 203% 61% 234% 78% 2015 2,0% 12,58 0,23
Namibia 265% -8% 6% -73% 2015 2,0% 3,97 1,55
Nauru no data no data no data no data        
Nepal 628% 61% 651% 66% 2015 2,0% 7,55 0,25
Netherlands -38% -46% -94% -95% 2015 -1,6% 154,71 9,10
Netherlands Antilles 53% -17% -92% -95% 2015 0,0% 6,47 306,50
New Caledonia 55% -14% -84% -91% 2015 2,0% 2,21 8,01
New Zealand -8% -36% -90% -93% 2015 0,0% 33,67 7,06
Nicaragua 95% -20% -4% -61% 2015 0,4% 5,00 0,76
Niger 400% 111% 696% 235% 2015 2,0% 2,35 0,10
Nigeria 15% -1% -19% -30% 2015 2,0% 93,90 0,46
Niue no data no data no data no data        
Northern Mariana Islands no data no data no data no data        
Norway -25% -41% -92% -94% 2015 -0,5% 42,20 7,88
Occupied Palestinian Territory no data no data no data no data        
Oman 259% -17% -73% -94% 2015 2,0% 84,77 18,94
Pakistan 120% -10% -8% -62% 2015 2,0% 188,94 0,94
Palau 178% -16% -27% -78% 2015 2,0% 0,04 1,77
Panama 155% -24% -47% -84% 2015 0,0% 10,27 2,42
Papua New Guinea 147% 2% -3% -60% 2015 2,0% 8,54 1,03
Paraguay 109% -8% -1% -57% 2015 2,0% 6,00 0,80
Peru 89% -13% -50% -77% 2015 2,0% 56,81 1,74
Philippines 109% 2% -23% -62% 2015 2,0% 122,15 1,12
Poland -53% -47% -95% -94% 2015 -2,4% 267,60 7,01
Portugal -18% -32% -89% -91% 2015 1,8% 54,56 5,15
Puerto Rico -30% 104% 18% 243% 2015 2,0% 0,33 0,09
Qatar 268% -15% -76% -95% 2015 2,0% 95,98 38,11
Republic of Moldova -86% -48% -97% -87% 2015 -4,5% 6,30 1,88
Réunion 62% -12% -48% -72% 2015 2,0% 1,24 1,33
Romania -76% -46% -96% -91% 2015 -4,6% 67,41 3,16
Russian Federation -57% -40% -96% -95% 2015 -2,0% 1.624,10 11,56
Rwanda 274% 96% 492% 211% 2015 2,0% 1,46 0,11
Saint Helena -2% -19% -83% -86% 2015 2,0% 0,01 3,34
Saint Kitts and Nevis 49% -19% -76% -87% 2015 2,0% 0,20 3,49
Saint Lucia 84% -17% -68% -86% 2015 2,0% 0,60 3,16
Saint Pierre and Miquelon 68% -17% -49% -75% 2015 2,0% 0,01 1,44
Samoa 25% 5% -41% -51% 2015 2,0% 0,16 0,81
San Marino no data no data no data no data        
Sao Tome and Principe 108% 22% 105% 21% 2015 2,0% 0,06 0,27
Saudi Arabia 107% -17% -84% -94% 2015 2,0% 546,31 17,13
Senegal 208% 5% 96% -33% 2015 2,0% 8,86 0,53
Serbia -35% -27% -93% -92% 2015 1,2% 66,36 7,20
Seychelles 93% -21% -77% -90% 2015 2,0% 0,56 5,88
Sierra Leone 124% 38% 162% 62% 2015 2,0% 1,37 0,20
Singapore 11% -26% -89% -93% 2015 2,0% 52,44 8,77
Sint Maarten (Dutch part) no data no data no data no data        
Slovakia -64% -46% -96% -94% 2015 -2,1% 33,36 6,10
Slovenia -38% -41% -93% -94% 2015 -1,2% 14,88 7,12
Solomon Islands 139% 17% 57% -23% 2015 2,0% 0,32 0,51
Somalia 218% 90% 396% 197% 2015 2,0% 1,37 0,11
South Africa -2% -36% -90% -93% 2015 0,9% 432,18 7,88
Sudan 181% -4% 115% -26% 2015 1,2% 17,65 0,41
Spain -32% -45% -91% -93% 2015 -2,3% 239,78 5,03
Sri Lanka 153% -26% 48% -57% 2015 -2,3% 13,39 0,60
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 71% -20% -71% -86% 2015 2,0% 0,36 3,28
Sudan 181% -4% 115% -26% 2015 1,2% 17,65 0,41
Suriname 0% -17% -86% -88% 2015 2,0% 2,52 4,46
Swaziland 134% 0% 51% -36% 2015 2,0% 0,71 0,53
Sweden -59% -55% -93% -93% 2015 -4,0% 36,11 3,62
Switzerland -49% -50% -93% -93% 2015 -3,0% 35,65 4,16
Syrian Arab Republic -20% -58% -76% -87% 2015 -5,0% 37,38 1,49
Tajikistan -67% 13% -79% -28% 2015 2,0% 4,95 0,53
Thailand 113% -19% -70% -89% 2015 2,0% 301,76 4,45
Timor-Leste 467% 28% 442% 22% 2015 -5,0% 0,36 0,29
Togo 212% 32% 184% 20% 2015 2,0% 2,48 0,31
Tokelau no data no data no data no data        
Tonga 179% -14% -36% -80% 2015 2,0% 0,24 2,15
Trinidad and Tobago 100% -38% -86% -96% 2015 1,8% 37,85 28,04
Tunisia 45% -17% -72% -84% 2015 2,0% 31,88 2,73
Turkey 64% -18% -78% -89% 2015 2,0% 385,94 4,85
Turkmenistan 42% 5% -89% -92% 2015 2,0% 101,83 18,10
Turks and Caicos Islands 557% -20% 72% -79% 2015 2,0% 0,06 1,78
Tuvalu no data no data no data no data        
Uganda 425% 93% 698% 193% 2015 2,0% 5,34 0,12
Ukraine -85% -62% -98% -95% 2015 -5,0% 186,27 4,29
United Arab Emirates 143% -20% -82% -94% 2015 2,0% 215,31 20,70
United Kingdom -64% -57% -95% -94% 2015 -5,0% 324,60 4,97
United Rep. of Tanzania 544% 105% 663% 143% 2015 2,0% 11,65 0,20
United States of America -34% -40% -95% -95% 2015 0,1% 5.191,58 15,48
United States Virgin Islands 864% 1095% 2303% 2877% 2015 -1,1% 0,00 0,01
Uruguay 11% -35% -72% -83% 2015 -3,9% 6,30 1,82
Uzbekistan -46% -38% -91% -89% 2015 -2,4% 99,85 3,20
Vanuatu 73% 22% 24% -13% 2015 2,0% 0,13 0,45
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) -13% -51% -88% -93% 2015 -4,7% 147,55 4,47
Viet Nam 637% -3% 60% -79% 2015 2,0% 222,63 2,31
Wallis and Futuna Islands no data no data no data no data        
Western Sahara 106% 14% 81% 0% 2015 2,0% 0,22 0,33
Yemen 245% -12% 21% -69% 2015 2,0% 33,15 1,19
Zambia 72% 126% 62% 113% 2015 2,0% 5,21 0,29
Zimbabwe -36% 14% -72% -50% 2015 2,0% 14,80 0,88

Referenzwerte nach dem Smooth Pathway Model

  2030 2050 base year projection 2019 % p.a. for projection 2019 projection 2019
in Mill. t
per captia emissions 2019 in t
 vs. (in %) 1990 2010 1990 2010
Afghanistan 424% 69% 438% 74% 2015 2,0% 9,36 0,27
Albania -33% 8% -70% -51% 2015 2,0% 4,80 1,48
Algeria 61% -7% -72% -84% 2015 2,0% 159,60 3,69
American Samoa no data no data no data no data        
Andorra no data no data no data no data        
Angola 140% 7% 49% -33% 2015 1,9% 24,84 0,97
Anguilla 318% 6% 43% -64% 2015 2,0% 0,03 2,00
Antigua and Barbuda 10% -24% -85% -90% 2015 2,0% 0,43 4,55
Argentina 6% -38% -83% -90% 2015 -0,1% 190,60 4,38
Armenia -82% -10% -91% -55% 2015 -0,8% 4,49 1,50
Aruba -48% -22% -87% -81% 2015 2,0% 0,28 2,70
Australia -40% -60% -98% -99% 2015 2,0% 482,32 19,19
Austria -45% -55% -96% -97% 2015 -0,3% 73,46 8,46
Azerbaiyesn -55% -2% -92% -82% 2015 2,0% 35,36 3,55
Bahamas -28% -46% -97% -97% 2015 2,0% 4,36 10,76
Bahrain -32% -54% -98% -99% 2015 2,0% 23,93 16,43
Bangladesh 523% 41% 453% 25% 2015 2,0% 77,11 0,46
Barbados -8% -30% -90% -92% 2015 2,0% 1,54 5,24
Belarus -71% -55% -97% -95% 2015 -1,3% 61,60 6,79
Belgium -62% -60% -97% -97% 2015 -0,6% 94,81 8,37
Belize 63% -14% -63% -80% 2015 2,0% 1,10 2,91
Benin 1658% 36% 1390% 15% 2015 2,0% 6,28 0,52
Bermuda -47% -43% -97% -97% 2015 2,0% 0,63 9,59
Bhutan 94% 22% -37% -61% 2015 2,0% 1,72 2,12
Bolivia 173% 15% 11% -53% 2015 2,0% 19,58 1,67
Bosnia and Herzegovina -48% -44% -95% -94% 2015 -0,5% 24,16 6,36
Botswana 72% -1% -69% -82% 2015 2,0% 7,50 3,52
Brazil 86% -3% -50% -74% 2015 2,0% 525,42 2,51
British Virgin Islands 50% -14% -70% -83% 2015 2,0% 0,10 3,30
Brunei Darussalam -9% -58% -97% -99% 2015 2,0% 8,92 19,87
Bulgaria -68% -46% -98% -96% 2015 0,7% 55,05 8,00
Burkina Faso 286% 33% 333% 49% 2015 1,5% 2,47 0,12
Burundi 225% 50% 285% 78% 2015 2,0% 1,17 0,10
Cambodia 596% 56% 576% 51% 2015 2,0% 5,72 0,34
Cameroon 191% 32% 157% 16% 2015 2,0% 12,01 0,47
Canada -53% -62% -98% -98% 2015 -0,1% 553,15 14,84
Cape Verde 177% 43% 200% 54% 2015 2,0% 0,11 0,20
Cayman Islands -5% -34% -92% -94% 2015 2,0% 0,40 6,44
Central African Republic 195% 46% 243% 71% 2015 2,0% 0,59 0,11
Chad 343% 66% 422% 96% 2015 2,0% 1,53 0,10
Channel Islands no data no data no data no data        
Chile 58% -29% -79% -91% 2015 1,7% 86,79 4,69
China 131% -41% -82% -95% 2015 0,5% 10.856,23 7,60
China, Hong Kong SAR -35% -46% -91% -93% 2015 -1,7% 42,59 5,67
China, Macao SAR 169% -17% -66% -89% 2015 2,0% 2,92 4,73
China, Taiwan Province of -7% -57% -96% -98% 2015 0,9% 289,28 12,28
Colombia 47% 20% -41% -52% 2015 2,0% 87,49 1,69
Comoros 204% 45% 247% 66% 2015 2,0% 0,12 0,14
Congo 137% 5% 45% -36% 2015 2,0% 5,12 1,00
Cook Islands 256% 9% 46% -55% 2015 2,0% 0,04 1,65
Costa Rica 173% 10% 9% -56% 2015 2,0% 8,95 1,71
Cote d'Ivoire 311% 63% 265% 45% 2015 2,0% 10,69 0,46
Croatia -51% -41% -94% -92% 2015 0,5% 20,92 4,98
Cuba -29% -15% -86% -83% 2015 2,0% 37,24 3,33
Curaçao no data no data no data no data        
Cyprus -39% -65% -84% -91% 2015 -5,0% 5,02 4,15
Czech Republic -74% -64% -98% -97% 2015 -2,9% 98,77 9,06
Dem. Rep. of the Congo 90% 108% 131% 152% 2015 2,0% 5,33 0,07
Denmark -71% -68% -94% -94% 2015 -5,0% 30,06 5,23
Djibouti 84% 16% -30% -56% 2015 2,0% 1,70 1,79
Dominica 84% -4% -50% -74% 2015 2,0% 0,18 2,49
Dominican Republic 161% 1% -25% -71% 2015 2,0% 26,23 2,36
Ecuador 109% -4% -46% -76% 2015 2,0% 45,11 2,63
Egypt 84% -21% -43% -76% 2015 -0,2% 224,91 2,50
El Salvador 199% 16% 57% -39% 2015 2,0% 8,06 1,22
Equatorial Guinea 2294% -37% 618% -81% 2015 0,0% 2,24 2,52
Eritrea 1637% 66% 1958% 96% 2015 2,0% 0,70 0,09
Estonia -73% -45% -99% -99% 2015 2,0% 31,61 24,99
Ethiopia 425% 100% 519% 136% 2015 2,0% 10,68 0,10
EU28 -61% -56% -96% -95% 2015 -1,0% 3.332,95 6,56
Faeroe Islands no data no data no data no data        
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) -28% -52% -98% -98% 2015 2,0% 0,05 15,65
Fiji 144% 21% -7% -54% 2015 2,0% 1,63 1,78
Finland -67% -72% -95% -96% 2015 -5,0% 39,51 7,15
France -57% -57% -91% -91% 2015 -3,3% 286,33 4,32
French Guiana 29% -29% -85% -92% 2015 2,0% 1,46 5,10
French Polynesia 50% -2% -70% -80% 2015 2,0% 0,94 3,21
Gabon -25% -19% -83% -82% 2015 2,0% 5,66 2,96
Gambia 232% 46% 283% 68% 2015 2,0% 0,27 0,12
Georgia -81% 14% -93% -55% 2015 1,3% 7,55 1,79
Germany -67% -59% -97% -97% 2015 -1,4% 734,01 8,95
Ghana 458% 55% 363% 28% 2015 2,0% 16,12 0,55
Gibraltar 32% -60% -96% -99% 2015 2,0% 0,54 18,48
Greece -63% -67% -92% -93% 2015 -5,0% 55,62 5,02
Greenland no data no data no data no data        
Grenada 122% -37% -74% -93% 2015 2,0% 0,55 5,09
Guadeloupe 12% -32% -87% -92% 2015 2,0% 2,47 5,17
Guam no data no data no data no data        
Guatemala 313% 36% 172% -10% 2015 2,0% 15,71 0,88
Guinea 134% 50% 161% 68% 2015 2,0% 2,24 0,16
Guinea-Bissau 167% 43% 196% 59% 2015 2,0% 0,34 0,18
Guyana 27% -22% -79% -87% 2015 2,0% 3,19 3,88
Haiti 156% 33% 172% 42% 2015 2,0% 2,52 0,23
Holy See no data no data no data no data        
Honduras 315% 21% 139% -30% 2015 2,0% 9,81 1,08
Hungary -62% -47% -94% -92% 2015 -0,8% 46,65 4,75
Iceland -27% -53% -97% -98% 2015 2,0% 4,19 11,93
India 227% 15% 23% -57% 2015 1,0% 2.554,65 1,91
Indonesia 185% 7% -5% -64% 2015 2,0% 543,50 2,04
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 61% -43% -90% -96% 2015 2,0% 684,83 8,22
Iraq 62% -11% -77% -88% 2015 2,0% 173,57 4,37
Ireland -44% -56% -95% -96% 2015 0,4% 37,25 7,57
Isle of Man no data no data no data no data        
Israel -21% -60% -90% -95% 2015 -3,6% 56,70 6,76
Italy -64% -64% -92% -92% 2015 -5,0% 287,43 4,68
Jamaica -9% -13% -83% -84% 2015 2,0% 9,92 3,46
Japan -55% -57% -97% -97% 2015 -1,5% 1.177,66 9,37
Jordan 75% -13% -63% -82% 2015 2,0% 24,78 3,09
Kazakhstan -58% -58% -99% -99% 2015 2,0% 289,58 16,66
Kenya 190% 41% 187% 39% 2015 2,0% 16,43 0,32
Kiribati 178% 57% 150% 41% 2015 2,0% 0,05 0,44
Korea, Dem. People's Rep. -61% -24% -90% -81% 2015 2,0% 68,07 2,65
Korea, Republic of -7% -58% -95% -98% 2015 0,2% 622,41 12,30
Kuwait 1% -63% -98% -99% 2015 1,6% 101,25 25,74
Kyrgyzstan -77% 9% -86% -32% 2015 -1,6% 6,60 1,09
Lao People's Dem. Rep. 251% 69% 183% 36% 2015 2,0% 4,44 0,59
Latvia -74% -39% -96% -90% 2015 1,1% 8,34 4,20
Lebanon 129% -33% -68% -91% 2015 1,1% 22,56 4,59
Lesotho 190% 45% 226% 63% 2015 2,0% 0,34 0,16
Liberia 174% 58% 201% 74% 2015 2,0% 0,91 0,18
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya -32% -62% -94% -97% 2015 -1,0% 50,16 7,51
Liechtenstein no data no data no data no data        
Lithuania -83% -56% -95% -87% 2015 -5,0% 10,17 3,45
Luxembourg -70% -69% -99% -99% 2015 -1,8% 9,51 16,68
Macedonia -48% -37% -92% -90% 2015 -0,2% 9,72 4,61
Madagascar 315% 47% 380% 70% 2015 2,0% 3,27 0,12
Malawi 246% 51% 307% 78% 2015 2,0% 1,94 0,10
Malaysia 129% -39% -85% -96% 2015 2,0% 265,15 8,18
Maldives 1377% 3% 220% -78% 2015 2,0% 1,16 3,04
Mali 292% 47% 364% 74% 2015 2,0% 1,73 0,09
Malta -47% -50% -92% -92% 2015 -1,6% 2,21 5,07
Marshall Islands no data no data no data no data        
Martinique -9% -35% -92% -94% 2015 2,0% 2,69 6,58
Mauritania 508% 35% 382% 7% 2015 2,0% 2,74 0,61
Mauritius 176% -8% -33% -78% 2015 2,0% 3,50 2,76
Mayotte no data no data no data no data        
Mexico 2% -34% -77% -85% 2015 -1,0% 453,59 3,47
Micronesia, Federated States of no data no data no data no data        
Monaco no data no data no data no data        
Mongolia -25% -25% -93% -93% 2015 2,0% 17,76 5,77
Montenegro no data no data no data no data        
Montserrat 193% -74% -96% -100% 2015 2,0% 0,34 64,67
Morocco 126% 9% -15% -59% 2015 2,0% 64,02 1,80
Mozambique 431% 61% 488% 79% 2015 2,0% 5,21 0,17
Myanmar 226% 73% 247% 84% 2015 2,0% 12,58 0,23
Namibia 376% 20% 107% -48% 2015 2,0% 3,97 1,55
Nauru no data no data no data no data        
Nepal 718% 80% 750% 87% 2015 2,0% 7,55 0,25
Netherlands -56% -62% -97% -97% 2015 -1,6% 154,71 9,10
Netherlands Antilles -40% -68% -99% -100% 2015 0,0% 6,47 306,50
New Caledonia 16% -36% -92% -96% 2015 2,0% 2,21 8,01
New Zealand -29% -50% -94% -95% 2015 0,0% 33,67 7,06
Nicaragua 146% 1% 79% -26% 2015 0,4% 5,00 0,76
Niger 273% 57% 338% 84% 2015 2,0% 2,35 0,10
Nigeria 50% 29% 34% 14% 2015 2,0% 93,90 0,46
Niue no data no data no data no data        
Northern Mariana Islands no data no data no data no data        
Norway -44% -56% -95% -96% 2015 -0,5% 42,20 7,88
Occupied Palestinian Territory no data no data no data no data        
Oman 96% -55% -94% -99% 2015 2,0% 84,77 18,94
Pakistan 202% 24% 91% -22% 2015 2,0% 188,94 0,94
Palau 254% 7% 36% -59% 2015 2,0% 0,04 1,77
Panama 185% -15% -11% -73% 2015 0,0% 10,27 2,42
Papua New Guinea 238% 39% 101% -18% 2015 2,0% 8,54 1,03
Paraguay 188% 26% 100% -12% 2015 2,0% 6,00 0,80
Peru 141% 11% -6% -57% 2015 2,0% 56,81 1,74
Philippines 184% 39% 59% -22% 2015 2,0% 122,15 1,12
Poland -64% -59% -96% -95% 2015 -2,4% 267,60 7,01
Portugal -26% -39% -92% -93% 2015 1,8% 54,56 5,15
Puerto Rico -53% 38% -44% 64% 2015 2,0% 0,33 0,09
Qatar 69% -61% -97% -99% 2015 2,0% 95,98 38,11
Republic of Moldova -88% -55% -96% -86% 2015 -4,5% 6,30 1,88
Réunion 116% 17% 6% -42% 2015 2,0% 1,24 1,33
Romania -78% -51% -93% -84% 2015 -4,6% 67,41 3,16
Russian Federation -72% -62% -98% -98% 2015 -2,0% 1.624,10 11,56
Rwanda 182% 48% 230% 73% 2015 2,0% 1,46 0,11
Saint Helena 4% -14% -80% -83% 2015 2,0% 0,01 3,34
Saint Kitts and Nevis 55% -16% -71% -84% 2015 2,0% 0,20 3,49
Saint Lucia 98% -11% -59% -82% 2015 2,0% 0,60 3,16
Saint Pierre and Miquelon 122% 9% 3% -50% 2015 2,0% 0,01 1,44
Samoa 72% 44% 19% -1% 2015 2,0% 0,16 0,81
San Marino no data no data no data no data        
Sao Tome and Principe 139% 40% 145% 44% 2015 2,0% 0,06 0,27
Saudi Arabia 17% -53% -96% -99% 2015 2,0% 546,31 17,13
Senegal 310% 40% 245% 18% 2015 2,0% 8,86 0,53
Serbia -50% -43% -96% -95% 2015 1,2% 66,36 7,20
Seychelles 64% -33% -84% -94% 2015 2,0% 0,56 5,88
Sierra Leone 131% 43% 150% 55% 2015 2,0% 1,37 0,20
Singapore -20% -47% -95% -97% 2015 2,0% 52,44 8,77
Sint Maarten (Dutch part) no data no data no data no data        
Slovakia -71% -57% -96% -94% 2015 -2,1% 33,36 6,10
Slovenia -52% -54% -95% -95% 2015 -1,2% 14,88 7,12
Solomon Islands 217% 55% 171% 32% 2015 2,0% 0,32 0,51
Somalia 144% 46% 185% 71% 2015 2,0% 1,37 0,11
South Africa -26% -52% -95% -96% 2015 0,9% 432,18 7,88
Sudan 242% 17% 213% 7% 2015 1,2% 17,65 0,41
Spain -42% -53% -91% -92% 2015 -2,3% 239,78 5,03
Sri Lanka 150% -28% 54% -55% 2015 -2,3% 13,39 0,60
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 82% -14% -64% -83% 2015 2,0% 0,36 3,28
Sudan 242% 17% 213% 7% 2015 1,2% 17,65 0,41
Suriname -5% -21% -87% -89% 2015 2,0% 2,52 4,46
Swaziland 212% 33% 164% 13% 2015 2,0% 0,71 0,53
Sweden -63% -60% -90% -89% 2015 -4,0% 36,11 3,62
Switzerland -54% -55% -90% -90% 2015 -3,0% 35,65 4,16
Syrian Arab Republic -32% -64% -77% -88% 2015 -5,0% 37,38 1,49
Tajikistan -56% 50% -62% 27% 2015 2,0% 4,95 0,53
Thailand 102% -23% -72% -89% 2015 2,0% 301,76 4,45
Timor-Leste 216% -29% -118% -104% 2015 -5,0% 0,36 0,29
Togo 274% 58% 271% 57% 2015 2,0% 2,48 0,31
Tokelau no data no data no data no data        
Tonga 239% 4% 8% -67% 2015 2,0% 0,24 2,15
Trinidad and Tobago -2% -70% -98% -99% 2015 1,8% 37,85 28,04
Tunisia 65% -6% -60% -77% 2015 2,0% 31,88 2,73
Turkey 50% -25% -82% -91% 2015 2,0% 385,94 4,85
Turkmenistan -22% -42% -98% -98% 2015 2,0% 101,83 18,10
Turks and Caicos Islands 736% 2% 220% -61% 2015 2,0% 0,06 1,78
Tuvalu no data no data no data no data        
Uganda 318% 53% 385% 78% 2015 2,0% 5,34 0,12
Ukraine -88% -68% -97% -92% 2015 -5,0% 186,27 4,29
United Arab Emirates 29% -58% -97% -99% 2015 2,0% 215,31 20,70
United Kingdom -71% -65% -94% -93% 2015 -5,0% 324,60 4,97
United Rep. of Tanzania 560% 111% 617% 129% 2015 2,0% 11,65 0,20
United States of America -61% -65% -98% -99% 2015 0,1% 5.191,58 15,48
United States Virgin Islands -34% -18% -50% -37% 2015 -1,1% 0,00 0,01
Uruguay 1% -40% -66% -80% 2015 -3,9% 6,30 1,82
Uzbekistan -47% -39% -86% -83% 2015 -2,4% 99,85 3,20
Vanuatu 125% 58% 101% 41% 2015 2,0% 0,13 0,45
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) -27% -59% -83% -91% 2015 -4,7% 147,55 4,47
Viet Nam 779% 16% 159% -66% 2015 2,0% 222,63 2,31
Wallis and Futuna Islands no data no data no data no data        
Western Sahara 151% 39% 145% 36% 2015 2,0% 0,22 0,33
Yemen 366% 18% 150% -36% 2015 2,0% 33,15 1,19
Zambia 102% 166% 103% 168% 2015 2,0% 5,21 0,29
Zimbabwe -12% 56% -42% 2% 2015 2,0% 14,80 0,88