Nachbesserungsprozess
(ratchet up mechanism)
von Paris

Das Pariser Abkommen hält die Tür zur Unterschreitung des 2°C-Limits einen kleinen Spalt offen. Jetzt kommt es darauf an, diese Chance zu nutzen. Entscheidend ist der vereinbarte Nachbesserungsprozess. 2018 soll es eine erste Überprüfung der Anstrengungen geben (Nr. 22 Draft decisions); 2023 eine erste große Inventur (Artikel 14). Nach unseren Berechnungen ist 2023 zu spät, um in die richtige Spur zu kommen. Daher sollten jetzt alle Bemühungen darauf gerichtet werden, dass in den nächsten Jahren möglichst viel CO2 vermieden wird und dass bereits 2018 die Staaten Langfristambitionen vorlegen, die in Summe mit dem 2°C-Limit kompatibel sind. Die nächsten Jahre sind damit wohl die letzte Chance, den notwendigen ökologischen Strukturwandel, ökonomisch noch sinnvoll zu gestalten. Je später glaubwürdige politischen Entscheidungen fallen, desto teurer wird es und desto größer wird die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass wir scheitern.

Wir brauchen einen Review durch die Zivilgesellschaft

Da der Versuch eines großen Wurfes (Top-Down) auf der Klimakonferenz 2009 in Kopenhagen gescheitert war, einigte man sich darauf, dass alle Staaten ihre "beabsichtigten, auf nationaler Ebene entschiedenen Beiträge" zum Klimaschutz nach 2020 (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions; INDCs) dem UN-Klimasekretariat bereits im Vorlauf zur Klimakonferenz in Paris 2015 melden mussten. Die INDCs wurden auf der Website des UNFCCC (Link) veröffentlicht. Das UN-Sekretariat hat kurz vor Paris seinen Synthesebericht veröffentlicht. Das Ergebnis: Die eingereichten INDCs sind ein Fortschritt; aber sie reichen bei weitem noch nicht aus, um die Zwei-Grad-Grenze zu unterschreiten (hier unser Kurzstatement zum Synthesebericht).

Nun ist es entscheidend, dass die Zivilgesellschaft in Verbund mit der Wissenschaft mit konkreten und fundierten Forderungen gegenüber der Politik genügend öffentlichen Druck aufbaut, so dass die Staaten einen fairen Anteil an den notwendigen globalen Anstrengungen übernehmen. Es muss eine öffentliche Diskussion darüber in Gang kommen, was eine faire und ökonomisch sinnvolle Aufteilung des verbleibenden CO2-Budgets auf Staaten sein könnte.

Grundlage für einen Review-Prozess sind Referenzwerte

Was braucht man, um für alle Staaten Referenzwerte berechnen zu können, die insgesamt mit dem 2°C-Limit kompatibel sind?

  1. Die Referenzwerte müssen aus nationalen Emissionspfaden abgeleitet werden, die in Summe mit der Unterschreitung des 2°C-Limits kompatibel sind.
  2. Ein Weg um dies zu gewährleisten ist: die nationalen Emissionspfade von einem globalen Pfad abzuleiten, der ein Budget einhält, das mit der Unterschreitung des 2°C-Limits kompatibel ist. Auf der Grundlage der Daten des Weltklimarates (IPCC) verbleiben uns ab 2012 noch ca. 1.000 Mrd. t CO2. Mit unserem Excel-Tool oder unserer Webanwendung zum Regensburger Modell, bieten wir eine Möglichkeit, solche globalen Pfade zu bestimmen, die einen plausiblen Verlauf aufweisen.
  3. Für die Ableitung der nationalen Emissionspfade von einem globalen Pfad, muss man sich der Frage der Klimagerechtigkeit stellen. Nach welchem Schlüssel sollen die globalen Emissionen auf Staaten verteilt werden bzw. an welchem Schlüssel sollen sich die Staaten bei ihren Angeboten orientieren?

Im Regensburger Modell wird diese Frage mit der Konvergenz der Pro-Kopf-Emissionen beantwortet (wurde von Bundeskanzlerin Merkel bereits 2007 postuliert). Mit der Regensburger Formel wird schrittweise der Verteilungsschlüssel "tatsächliche Emissionen im Basisjahr" durch den Verteilungsschlüssel "gleiche Pro-Kopf-Emissionen im Konvergenzjahr" ersetzt (mehr Informationen unter: Downloads).

Das Regensburger Modell setzt damit nur ein relativ niedriges Niveau an Klimagerechtigkeit um. Insbesondere wird bei einer Konvergenz der Pro-Kopf-Rechte die historische Verantwortung der heutigen Industrieländer für den Klimawandel nicht berücksichtigt und die Erreichung von gleichen Pro-Kopf-Rechten in die Zukunft verschoben.

Vor diesem Hintergrund haben die Referenzwerte des Regensburger Modells gerade dann eine hohe Aussagekraft, wenn selbst dieses geringe Ambitionsniveau von Industrieländern bei ihren gemeldeten nationalen Beiträgen im Rahmen des Pariser Nachbesserungsprozesses noch unterschritten wird. Diese Industriestaaten kommen in Erklärungsnot, welchen Standard sie in puncto Klimagerechtigkeit zu Grunde legen.

Wir möchten hier auch auf die Website http://climateactiontracker.org/ hinweisen. Dort werden die (I)NDCs mit Kriterien aus vielen unterschiedlichen Studien abgeglichen. Mit dem Regensburger Modell können wir dazu eine plausible und transparente Ergänzung liefern. Die Referenzwerte nach dem Regensburger Modell stellen eine Art Untergrenze dar, wenn man grundsätzlich konvergierende Pro-Kopf-Emissionen akzeptiert.

Referenzwerte nach dem Regensburger Modell

Wir bieten Ihnen drei Wege zu den Referenzwerten für ein bestimmtes Land nach dem Regensburger Modell an:

  1. Ausführliches Excel-Tool zum Regensburger Modell (Download hier)

    In diesem Tool sind viele Detaileinstellungen möglich und es werden vier Szenariotypen für den globalen Pfad angeboten. Außerdem können Sie alle Berechnungen und die Quellen der verwendeten Daten nachvollziehen.

  2. Vereinfachtes Tool zum Regensburger Modell (Webanwendung)

    In diesem vereinfachten Tool können in einer zentralen Maske die wichtigsten Einstellungen vorgenommen werden und Sie können sofort die sich ergebenden Referenzwerte für ein ausgewähltes Land ablesen:

    www.climate-calculator.info.

  3. Tabellen mit beispielhaften Referenzwerten auf dieser Website mit Offenlegung der dahinter stehenden Annahmen

Annahmen für die Referenzwerte in den folgenden Tabellen

Den Referenzwerten, die in den nachfolgenden Tabellen angegeben werden, liegen bestimmte Annahmen (download als PDF hier) zu Grunde, die Sie bei Verwendung des Excel-Tools alle und in der vereinfachten Webanwendung zum Teil auch verändern können.

Länder nach Hochrechnung ihrer Emissionen im Jahr 2019 sortiert
(Basisdaten für Hochrechnung siehe Tabelle Länder alphabetich geordnet)

points of reference
2030
2050
projection 2019
in Mill. t
per captia emissions 2019 in t
proportion in relation to global emissions 
cumulative emissions without EU
vs. year of reference
1990
2010
1990
2010
China
187%
-14%
-70%
-91%
11.241,88
7,87
30,08%
30%
United States
-34%
-38%
-94%
-95%
5.248,53
15,65
14,05%
44%
EU28
-49%
-42%
-94%
-93%
3.478,77
6,85
9,31%
44%
India
143%
-5%
-27%
-71%
2.332,86
1,74
6,24%
50%
Russian Federation
-48%
-25%
-96%
-94%
2.029,24
14,44
5,43%
56%
Japan
-20%
-21%
-93%
-93%
1.487,71
11,83
3,98%
60%
Korea, Republic of
102%
-7%
-84%
-92%
816,12
16,13
2,18%
62%
Brazil
99%
13%
-63%
-79%
666,78
3,18
1,78%
64%
Germany
-60%
-50%
-96%
-95%
641,76
7,82
1,72%
65%
Indonesia
168%
1%
-36%
-76%
634,62
2,38
1,70%
67%
Saudi Arabia
136%
-4%
-81%
-92%
623,36
19,55
1,67%
69%
Canada
-20%
-34%
-93%
-94%
568,70
15,26
1,52%
70%
Mexico
13%
-20%
-81%
-87%
544,54
4,17
1,46%
72%
countries without emission data (Cwo)
0%
-28%
0%
-93%
539,87
14,24
1,44%
73%
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
44%
-23%
-80%
-89%
461,76
5,55
1,24%
74%
United Kingdom
-51%
-40%
-94%
-93%
456,13
6,99
1,22%
76%
Turkey
85%
-3%
-74%
-86%
430,14
5,40
1,15%
77%
Ukraine
-71%
-20%
-97%
-93%
355,40
8,18
0,95%
78%
Italy
-47%
-45%
-94%
-93%
354,24
5,77
0,95%
79%
Poland
-30%
-30%
-93%
-93%
349,07
9,14
0,93%
80%
Thailand
139%
-3%
-70%
-88%
341,51
5,04
0,91%
81%
France
-45%
-44%
-92%
-92%
338,14
5,10
0,90%
82%
Kazakhstan
-19%
5%
-93%
-92%
329,58
18,96
0,88%
82%
Australia
-25%
-52%
-93%
-95%
327,69
13,04
0,88%
83%
South Africa
-29%
-45%
-90%
-92%
298,82
5,45
0,80%
84%
Malaysia
239%
2%
-62%
-89%
295,62
9,12
0,79%
85%
Egypt
95%
-7%
-56%
-79%
267,32
2,98
0,72%
86%
United Arab Emirates
188%
-1%
-77%
-92%
263,13
25,30
0,70%
86%
Iraq
121%
17%
-62%
-80%
239,69
6,04
0,64%
87%
Argentina
36%
-14%
-81%
-88%
226,13
5,20
0,61%
88%
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
30%
-12%
-83%
-89%
225,31
6,83
0,60%
88%
Viet Nam
602%
10%
57%
-76%
224,53
2,33
0,60%
89%
Algeria
61%
0%
-72%
-83%
172,45
3,99
0,46%
89%
Spain
-52%
-64%
-92%
-94%
168,96
3,54
0,45%
90%
Pakistan
100%
-22%
17%
-54%
157,67
0,79
0,42%
90%
Netherlands
-41%
-43%
-94%
-94%
150,82
8,87
0,40%
90%
Philippines
142%
18%
10%
-46%
132,75
1,22
0,36%
91%
Chile
118%
5%
-74%
-87%
125,58
6,79
0,34%
91%
Belgium
-33%
-29%
-94%
-93%
123,50
10,90
0,33%
91%
Kuwait
169%
-4%
-79%
-93%
123,43
31,38
0,33%
92%
Colombia
45%
6%
-63%
-73%
111,71
2,16
0,30%
92%
Qatar
322%
11%
-72%
-92%
110,20
43,75
0,29%
92%
Uzbekistan
-43%
-39%
-90%
-89%
108,48
3,48
0,29%
93%
Czech Republic
-59%
-42%
-96%
-94%
108,06
9,91
0,29%
93%
Belarus
-43%
-17%
-95%
-93%
95,11
10,48
0,25%
93%
Morocco
168%
11%
-39%
-75%
91,04
2,56
0,24%
93%
Nigeria
47%
38%
71%
61%
90,52
0,44
0,24%
94%
Austria
-15%
-26%
-92%
-93%
84,92
9,78
0,23%
94%
Israel
39%
-27%
-84%
-91%
76,63
9,14
0,21%
94%
Korea, Dem. People's Rep.
-62%
-29%
-93%
-87%
75,78
2,95
0,20%
94%
Turkmenistan
-3%
-6%
-91%
-92%
75,60
13,44
0,20%
95%
Romania
-75%
-46%
-96%
-92%
71,55
3,36
0,19%
95%
Bangladesh
378%
34%
296%
11%
70,10
0,42
0,19%
95%
Oman
176%
-2%
-76%
-91%
65,22
14,57
0,17%
95%
Peru
102%
11%
-41%
-68%
62,22
1,90
0,17%
95%
Singapore
24%
-7%
-87%
-90%
58,82
9,83
0,16%
95%
Finland
-41%
-43%
-94%
-94%
53,57
9,69
0,14%
96%
China, Hong Kong SAR
-4%
-35%
-89%
-93%
52,76
7,03
0,14%
96%
Serbia
0%
-27%
0%
-92%
51,86
5,62
0,14%
96%
Greece
-58%
-67%
-94%
-96%
51,37
4,63
0,14%
96%
Sweden
-44%
-31%
-92%
-90%
50,41
5,06
0,13%
96%
Switzerland
-29%
-30%
-90%
-90%
49,72
5,81
0,13%
96%
Syrian Arab Republic
-7%
-31%
-70%
-78%
47,97
1,91
0,13%
96%
Ecuador
95%
2%
-53%
-76%
46,06
2,68
0,12%
97%
Azerbaiyesn
-55%
0%
-94%
-86%
44,52
4,47
0,12%
97%
Bulgaria
-67%
-44%
-97%
-94%
43,64
6,34
0,12%
97%
Norway
-28%
-36%
-92%
-93%
43,03
8,03
0,12%
97%
Slovakia
-58%
-33%
-96%
-93%
40,38
7,38
0,11%
97%
Trinidad and Tobago
111%
-38%
-86%
-96%
39,96
29,61
0,11%
97%
Portugal
-43%
-56%
-91%
-93%
38,15
3,60
0,10%
97%
Hungary
-68%
-54%
-95%
-93%
37,67
3,84
0,10%
97%
New Zealand
2%
-34%
-88%
-92%
36,77
7,71
0,10%
97%
Bahrain
76%
-15%
-86%
-93%
35,57
24,42
0,10%
97%
Cuba
-30%
-47%
-89%
-92%
34,23
3,06
0,09%
98%
Ireland
-33%
-49%
-92%
-94%
34,06
6,92
0,09%
98%
Tunisia
46%
-18%
-70%
-83%
32,90
2,82
0,09%
98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
-16%
-18%
-92%
-92%
32,87
8,66
0,09%
98%
Jordan
107%
-7%
-60%
-82%
31,96
3,99
0,09%
98%
Denmark
-63%
-59%
-95%
-94%
30,82
5,36
0,08%
98%
Angola
114%
36%
37%
-12%
29,02
1,13
0,08%
98%
Dominican Republic
116%
-18%
-49%
-81%
27,07
2,43
0,07%
98%
Estonia
-55%
5%
-97%
-92%
26,41
20,88
0,07%
98%
Sri Lanka
304%
20%
58%
-53%
23,90
1,08
0,06%
98%
Lithuania
-58%
1%
-96%
-90%
23,24
7,87
0,06%
98%
Bolivia
145%
23%
-23%
-62%
22,99
1,96
0,06%
98%
Croatia
-45%
-42%
-93%
-93%
21,68
5,16
0,06%
98%
Lebanon
93%
-23%
-71%
-88%
20,61
4,20
0,06%
99%
Kenya
196%
73%
251%
106%
19,08
0,37
0,05%
99%
Yemen
132%
-38%
65%
-56%
18,90
0,68
0,05%
99%
Myanmar
289%
34%
245%
19%
18,06
0,32
0,05%
99%
Panama
345%
1%
-21%
-82%
17,93
4,23
0,05%
99%
Mongolia
-23%
-17%
-89%
-88%
17,01
5,53
0,05%
99%
Zimbabwe
-24%
15%
-58%
-36%
16,73
1,00
0,04%
99%
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
-74%
-81%
-94%
-95%
16,52
2,47
0,04%
99%
Slovenia
-29%
-38%
-93%
-94%
16,48
7,88
0,04%
99%
Ghana
355%
47%
280%
23%
16,04
0,55
0,04%
99%
Sudan
211%
36%
266%
60%
15,22
0,35
0,04%
99%
Brunei Darussalam
149%
-7%
-82%
-93%
13,82
30,77
0,04%
99%
Guatemala
178%
-24%
116%
-41%
12,57
0,70
0,03%
99%
Luxembourg
-38%
-30%
-95%
-94%
11,66
20,46
0,03%
99%
Macedonia
-37%
-24%
-93%
-91%
11,62
5,51
0,03%
99%
Jamaica
-12%
-33%
-86%
-90%
10,28
3,59
0,03%
99%
Senegal
305%
48%
271%
35%
10,26
0,61
0,03%
99%
Ethiopia
1388%
282%
2744%
631%
10,19
0,09
0,03%
99%
Honduras
197%
-14%
59%
-54%
9,02
0,99
0,02%
99%
Costa Rica
107%
-10%
-37%
-73%
8,83
1,69
0,02%
99%
Tajikistan
-48%
-8%
-68%
-44%
8,48
0,90
0,02%
99%
Georgia
-82%
-11%
-96%
-81%
8,38
1,98
0,02%
99%
Kyrgyzstan
-75%
-24%
-90%
-71%
8,38
1,38
0,02%
99%
United Rep. of Tanzania
780%
261%
1527%
566%
8,25
0,14
0,02%
99%
Latvia
-74%
-32%
-97%
-91%
8,15
4,11
0,02%
99%
Uruguay
37%
-10%
-70%
-80%
8,08
2,33
0,02%
99%
El Salvador
115%
-22%
-24%
-73%
7,93
1,21
0,02%
99%
Cameroon
30%
44%
70%
88%
7,83
0,30
0,02%
99%
Armenia
-77%
-27%
-96%
-86%
7,34
2,45
0,02%
99%
Paraguay
141%
14%
28%
-39%
7,04
0,94
0,02%
99%
Republic of Moldova
-86%
-37%
-97%
-88%
6,81
2,03
0,02%
100%
Cyprus
-3%
-45%
-87%
-93%
6,78
5,61
0,02%
100%
Benin
1404%
57%
1309%
47%
6,57
0,55
0,02%
100%
Gabon
-1%
-23%
-76%
-81%
6,49
3,39
0,02%
100%
Albania
-34%
0%
-85%
-77%
6,35
1,96
0,02%
100%
Mozambique
768%
177%
1264%
335%
6,32
0,21
0,02%
100%
Congo
108%
15%
31%
-28%
5,83
1,13
0,02%
100%
Iceland
54%
-13%
-87%
-93%
5,80
16,52
0,02%
100%
Cote d'Ivoire
163%
30%
275%
85%
5,66
0,24
0,02%
100%
Bahamas
7%
-15%
-90%
-92%
5,59
13,79
0,01%
100%
Nicaragua
118%
-11%
16%
-52%
5,57
0,85
0,01%
100%
Namibia
222%
4%
-2%
-68%
5,43
2,12
0,01%
100%
Nepal
551%
67%
769%
123%
5,40
0,18
0,01%
100%
Papua New Guinea
75%
-14%
37%
-33%
5,11
0,62
0,01%
100%
Zambia
159%
190%
303%
351%
4,89
0,28
0,01%
100%
Togo
460%
60%
402%
43%
4,65
0,59
0,01%
100%
Mauritania
345%
17%
166%
-30%
4,63
1,03
0,01%
100%
Dem. Rep. of the Congo
360%
502%
890%
1196%
4,62
0,06
0,01%
100%
Botswana
100%
-30%
-43%
-80%
4,41
2,07
0,01%
100%
Mauritius
125%
-2%
-63%
-84%
4,18
3,30
0,01%
100%
Netherlands Antilles
-21%
-72%
-95%
-98%
3,62
171,55
0,01%
100%
Burundi
1320%
126%
1969%
229%
3,42
0,28
0,01%
100%
Madagascar
849%
266%
1696%
592%
3,21
0,12
0,01%
100%
Réunion
92%
0%
-62%
-80%
2,98
3,19
0,01%
100%
Montenegro
0%
-27%
0%
-91%
2,93
4,72
0,01%
100%
Martinique
15%
-14%
-88%
-91%
2,92
7,14
0,01%
100%
Djibouti
57%
4%
-65%
-77%
2,73
2,87
0,01%
100%
Guadeloupe
33%
-18%
-83%
-90%
2,66
5,57
0,01%
100%
Uganda
1780%
675%
4066%
1618%
2,54
0,06
0,01%
100%
Occupied Palestinian Territory
0%
3%
0%
0%
2,50
0,50
0,01%
100%
Guyana
104%
-16%
-60%
-84%
2,15
2,61
0,01%
100%
Equatorial Guinea
1398%
-49%
394%
-83%
2,15
2,42
0,01%
100%
Guinea
196%
180%
394%
369%
2,13
0,16
0,01%
100%
Suriname
-19%
-11%
-86%
-85%
2,04
3,60
0,01%
100%
Cambodia
571%
157%
1001%
322%
2,02
0,12
0,01%
100%
Malta
-54%
-29%
-93%
-89%
1,70
3,90
0,00%
100%
Fiji
-10%
3%
-78%
-74%
1,69
1,86
0,00%
100%
Barbados
-2%
-21%
-87%
-89%
1,53
5,24
0,00%
100%
China, Macao SAR
9%
-21%
-73%
-80%
1,49
2,42
0,00%
100%
Sierra Leone
128%
106%
211%
182%
1,48
0,22
0,00%
100%
Burkina Faso
901%
431%
1990%
1010%
1,48
0,07
0,00%
100%
Niger
1200%
806%
2841%
1951%
1,45
0,06
0,00%
100%
Haiti
103%
-2%
219%
55%
1,44
0,13
0,00%
100%
New Caledonia
-30%
-21%
-89%
-88%
1,44
5,20
0,00%
100%
Swaziland
117%
15%
9%
-43%
1,34
0,99
0,00%
100%
Malawi
914%
467%
2065%
1110%
1,31
0,07
0,00%
100%
French Guiana
27%
-12%
-74%
-82%
1,26
4,40
0,00%
100%
Lao People's Dem. Rep.
624%
123%
966%
228%
1,26
0,17
0,00%
100%
Seychelles
131%
-3%
-80%
-92%
1,23
12,91
0,00%
100%
Eritrea
845%
203%
1488%
409%
1,23
0,16
0,00%
100%
Belize
167%
-12%
-35%
-79%
1,17
3,09
0,00%
100%
Rwanda
416%
344%
932%
788%
1,13
0,08
0,00%
100%
Maldives
561%
3%
65%
-74%
0,95
2,48
0,00%
100%
Mali
1277%
768%
3018%
1864%
0,92
0,05
0,00%
100%
Bhutan
257%
43%
50%
-40%
0,90
1,10
0,00%
100%
Somalia
389%
479%
939%
1130%
0,89
0,07
0,00%
100%
Liberia
204%
182%
401%
365%
0,86
0,17
0,00%
100%
Grenada
332%
-14%
-57%
-91%
0,83
7,72
0,00%
100%
Central African Republic
389%
149%
686%
301%
0,82
0,16
0,00%
100%
French Polynesia
-40%
-9%
-88%
-81%
0,82
2,79
0,00%
100%
Afghanistan
206%
990%
616%
2450%
0,76
0,02
0,00%
100%
Montserrat
1142%
-13%
-25%
-95%
0,75
141,39
0,00%
100%
Solomon Islands
216%
18%
59%
-41%
0,74
1,18
0,00%
100%
Bermuda
-30%
-19%
-94%
-92%
0,68
10,25
0,00%
100%
Saint Lucia
100%
-12%
-65%
-85%
0,65
3,40
0,00%
100%
Antigua and Barbuda
10%
-18%
-85%
-89%
0,55
5,79
0,00%
100%
Aruba
-45%
-6%
-93%
-88%
0,53
5,07
0,00%
100%
Cayman Islands
20%
-13%
-87%
-91%
0,51
8,21
0,00%
100%
Gibraltar
107%
-25%
-84%
-94%
0,50
16,96
0,00%
100%
Guinea-Bissau
189%
112%
316%
206%
0,45
0,23
0,00%
100%
Palau
4%
13%
-91%
-90%
0,39
17,53
0,00%
100%
Comoros
451%
73%
462%
77%
0,39
0,46
0,00%
100%
Western Sahara
97%
26%
38%
-12%
0,38
0,56
0,00%
100%
Gambia
346%
195%
679%
416%
0,38
0,17
0,00%
100%
Andorra
0%
-56%
0%
-93%
0,32
3,89
0,00%
100%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
120%
-13%
-59%
-84%
0,31
2,87
0,00%
100%
Lesotho
240%
136%
429%
267%
0,29
0,13
0,00%
100%
Liechtenstein
-20%
0%
-90%
0%
0,26
6,63
0,00%
100%
Samoa
31%
5%
-48%
-59%
0,25
1,24
0,00%
100%
Cape Verde
137%
24%
103%
7%
0,21
0,40
0,00%
100%
Dominica
93%
-13%
-61%
-83%
0,19
2,60
0,00%
100%
Saint Kitts and Nevis
77%
-13%
-65%
-83%
0,17
3,01
0,00%
100%
Sao Tome and Principe
147%
19%
80%
-14%
0,17
0,76
0,00%
100%
Micronesia, Federated States of
0%
5%
0%
-61%
0,14
1,32
0,00%
100%
British Virgin Islands
71%
-6%
-74%
-86%
0,14
4,61
0,00%
100%
Chad
1470%
1619%
3788%
4159%
0,13
0,01
0,00%
100%
Monaco
-30%
0%
-84%
0%
0,11
2,82
0,00%
100%
Vanuatu
-6%
52%
0%
62%
0,11
0,39
0,00%
100%
Marshall Islands
47%
-29%
-58%
-80%
0,10
1,90
0,00%
100%
Anguilla
0%
-6%
0%
-88%
0,09
5,80
0,00%
100%
Cook Islands
145%
-23%
-60%
-87%
0,08
3,93
0,00%
100%
Tonga
32%
-8%
-16%
-41%
0,07
0,66
0,00%
100%
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)
21%
-15%
-91%
-93%
0,06
17,93
0,00%
100%
Kiribati
113%
37%
80%
16%
0,05
0,48
0,00%
100%
Wallis and Futuna Islands
0%
0%
0%
0%
0,04
2,68
0,00%
100%
American Samoa
104%
10%
51%
-19%
0,03
0,45
0,00%
100%
Turks and Caicos Islands
0%
33%
0%
-14%
0,02
0,59
0,00%
100%
Guam
267%
171%
577%
400%
0,01
0,08
0,00%
100%
Niue
64%
-6%
-84%
-91%
0,01
8,90
0,00%
100%
Saint Helena
-54%
-6%
-87%
-74%
0,01
1,73
0,00%
100%
Saint Pierre and Miquelon
19378%
-19%
6696%
-72%
0,01
1,17
0,00%
100%
Timor-Leste
21032%
13109%
53000%
33091%
0,00
0,00
0,00%
100%
Greenland
230%
170%
530%
416%
0,00
0,05
0,00%
100%
Faeroe Islands
328%
241%
778%
599%
0,00
0,04
0,00%
100%
United States Virgin Islands
380%
632%
1014%
1598%
0,00
0,01
0,00%
100%
Nauru
186%
85%
328%
176%
0,00
0,12
0,00%
100%
Puerto Rico
-44%
-40%
42%
51%
0,00
0,00
0,00%
100%
Tuvalu
219%
183%
526%
455%
0,00
0,06
0,00%
100%
Channel Islands
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%
Curaçao
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%
Holy See
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%
Isle of Man
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%
Mayotte
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%
Northern Mariana Islands
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%
Other non-specified areas
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%
San Marino
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%
Sint Maarten (Dutch part)
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%
South Sudan
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%
Tokelau
no data
no data
no data
no data
0,00%
100%

Länder alphabetisch geordnet (Länder nach Emissionen 2019 geordnet)

points of reference
2030
2050
projection 2019
in Mill. t
per captia emissions 2019 in t
vs. reference year
1990
2010
1990
2010
Afghanistan
206%
990%
616%
2450%
0,76
0,02
Albania
-34%
0%
-85%
-77%
6,35
1,96
Algeria
61%
0%
-72%
-83%
172,45
3,99
American Samoa
104%
10%
51%
-19%
0,03
0,45
Andorra
0%
-56%
0%
-93%
0,32
3,89
Angola
114%
36%
37%
-12%
29,02
1,13
Anguilla
0%
-6%
0%
-88%
0,09
5,80
Antigua and Barbuda
10%
-18%
-85%
-89%
0,55
5,79
Argentina
36%
-14%
-81%
-88%
226,13
5,20
Armenia
-77%
-27%
-96%
-86%
7,34
2,45
Aruba
-45%
-6%
-93%
-88%
0,53
5,07
Australia
-25%
-52%
-93%
-95%
327,69
13,04
Austria
-15%
-26%
-92%
-93%
84,92
9,78
Azerbaiyesn
-55%
0%
-94%
-86%
44,52
4,47
Bahamas
7%
-15%
-90%
-92%
5,59
13,79
Bahrain
76%
-15%
-86%
-93%
35,57
24,42
Bangladesh
378%
34%
296%
11%
70,10
0,42
Barbados
-2%
-21%
-87%
-89%
1,53
5,24
Belarus
-43%
-17%
-95%
-93%
95,11
10,48
Belgium
-33%
-29%
-94%
-93%
123,50
10,90
Belize
167%
-12%
-35%
-79%
1,17
3,09
Benin
1404%
57%
1309%
47%
6,57
0,55
Bermuda
-30%
-19%
-94%
-92%
0,68
10,25
Bhutan
257%
43%
50%
-40%
0,90
1,10
Bolivia
145%
23%
-23%
-62%
22,99
1,96
Bosnia and Herzegovina
-16%
-18%
-92%
-92%
32,87
8,66
Botswana
100%
-30%
-43%
-80%
4,41
2,07
Brazil
99%
13%
-63%
-79%
666,78
3,18
British Virgin Islands
71%
-6%
-74%
-86%
0,14
4,61
Brunei Darussalam
149%
-7%
-82%
-93%
13,82
30,77
Bulgaria
-67%
-44%
-97%
-94%
43,64
6,34
Burkina Faso
901%
431%
1990%
1010%
1,48
0,07
Burundi
1320%
126%
1969%
229%
3,42
0,28
Cambodia
571%
157%
1001%
322%
2,02
0,12
Cameroon
30%
44%
70%
88%
7,83
0,30
Canada
-20%
-34%
-93%
-94%
568,70
15,26
Cape Verde
137%
24%
103%
7%
0,21
0,40
Cayman Islands
20%
-13%
-87%
-91%
0,51
8,21
Central African Republic
389%
149%
686%
301%
0,82
0,16
Chad
1470%
1619%
3788%
4159%
0,13
0,01
Channel Islands
no data
no data
no data
no data
Chile
118%
5%
-74%
-87%
125,58
6,79
China
187%
-14%
-70%
-91%
11.241,88
7,87
China, Hong Kong SAR
-4%
-35%
-89%
-93%
52,76
7,03
China, Macao SAR
9%
-21%
-73%
-80%
1,49
2,42
Colombia
45%
6%
-63%
-73%
111,71
2,16
Comoros
451%
73%
462%
77%
0,39
0,46
Congo
108%
15%
31%
-28%
5,83
1,13
Cook Islands
145%
-23%
-60%
-87%
0,08
3,93
Costa Rica
107%
-10%
-37%
-73%
8,83
1,69
Cote d'Ivoire
163%
30%
275%
85%
5,66
0,24
Croatia
-45%
-42%
-93%
-93%
21,68
5,16
Cuba
-30%
-47%
-89%
-92%
34,23
3,06
Curaçao
no data
no data
no data
no data
Cyprus
-3%
-45%
-87%
-93%
6,78
5,61
Czech Republic
-59%
-42%
-96%
-94%
108,06
9,91
Dem. Rep. of the Congo
360%
502%
890%
1196%
4,62
0,06
Denmark
-63%
-59%
-95%
-94%
30,82
5,36
Djibouti
57%
4%
-65%
-77%
2,73
2,87
Dominica
93%
-13%
-61%
-83%
0,19
2,60
Dominican Republic
116%
-18%
-49%
-81%
27,07
2,43
Ecuador
95%
2%
-53%
-76%
46,06
2,68
Egypt
95%
-7%
-56%
-79%
267,32
2,98
El Salvador
115%
-22%
-24%
-73%
7,93
1,21
Equatorial Guinea
1398%
-49%
394%
-83%
2,15
2,42
Eritrea
845%
203%
1488%
409%
1,23
0,16
Estonia
-55%
5%
-97%
-92%
26,41
20,88
Ethiopia
1388%
282%
2744%
631%
10,19
0,09
EU28
-49%
-42%
-94%
-93%
3.478,77
6,85
Faeroe Islands
328%
241%
778%
599%
0,00
0,04
Falkland Islands (Malvinas)
21%
-15%
-91%
-93%
0,06
17,93
Fiji
-10%
3%
-78%
-74%
1,69
1,86
Finland
-41%
-43%
-94%
-94%
53,57
9,69
France
-45%
-44%
-92%
-92%
338,14
5,10
French Guiana
27%
-12%
-74%
-82%
1,26
4,40
French Polynesia
-40%
-9%
-88%
-81%
0,82
2,79
Gabon
-1%
-23%
-76%
-81%
6,49
3,39
Gambia
346%
195%
679%
416%
0,38
0,17
Georgia
-82%
-11%
-96%
-81%
8,38
1,98
Germany
-60%
-50%
-96%
-95%
641,76
7,82
Ghana
355%
47%
280%
23%
16,04
0,55
Gibraltar
107%
-25%
-84%
-94%
0,50
16,96
Greece
-58%
-67%
-94%
-96%
51,37
4,63
Greenland
230%
170%
530%
416%
0,00
0,05
Grenada
332%
-14%
-57%
-91%
0,83
7,72
Guadeloupe
33%
-18%
-83%
-90%
2,66
5,57
Guam
267%
171%
577%
400%
0,01
0,08
Guatemala
178%
-24%
116%
-41%
12,57
0,70
Guinea
196%
180%
394%
369%
2,13
0,16
Guinea-Bissau
189%
112%
316%
206%
0,45
0,23
Guyana
104%
-16%
-60%
-84%
2,15
2,61
Haiti
103%
-2%
219%
55%
1,44
0,13
Holy See
no data
no data
no data
no data
Honduras
197%
-14%
59%
-54%
9,02
0,99
Hungary
-68%
-54%
-95%
-93%
37,67
3,84
Iceland
54%
-13%
-87%
-93%
5,80
16,52
India
143%
-5%
-27%
-71%
2.332,86
1,74
Indonesia
168%
1%
-36%
-76%
634,62
2,38
Iran (Islamic Republic of)
44%
-23%
-80%
-89%
461,76
5,55
Iraq
121%
17%
-62%
-80%
239,69
6,04
Ireland
-33%
-49%
-92%
-94%
34,06
6,92
Isle of Man
no data
no data
no data
no data
Israel
39%
-27%
-84%
-91%
76,63
9,14
Italy
-47%
-45%
-94%
-93%
354,24
5,77
Jamaica
-12%
-33%
-86%
-90%
10,28
3,59
Japan
-20%
-21%
-93%
-93%
1.487,71
11,83
Jordan
107%
-7%
-60%
-82%
31,96
3,99
Kazakhstan
-19%
5%
-93%
-92%
329,58
18,96
Kenya
196%
73%
251%
106%
19,08
0,37
Kiribati
113%
37%
80%
16%
0,05
0,48
Korea, Dem. People's Rep.
-62%
-29%
-93%
-87%
75,78
2,95
Korea, Republic of
102%
-7%
-84%
-92%
816,12
16,13
Kuwait
169%
-4%
-79%
-93%
123,43
31,38
Kyrgyzstan
-75%
-24%
-90%
-71%
8,38
1,38
Lao People's Dem. Rep.
624%
123%
966%
228%
1,26
0,17
Latvia
-74%
-32%
-97%
-91%
8,15
4,11
Lebanon
93%
-23%
-71%
-88%
20,61
4,20
Lesotho
240%
136%
429%
267%
0,29
0,13
Liberia
204%
182%
401%
365%
0,86
0,17
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
-74%
-81%
-94%
-95%
16,52
2,47
Liechtenstein
-20%
0%
-90%
0%
0,26
6,63
Lithuania
-58%
1%
-96%
-90%
23,24
7,87
Luxembourg
-38%
-30%
-95%
-94%
11,66
20,46
Macedonia
-37%
-24%
-93%
-91%
11,62
5,51
Madagascar
849%
266%
1696%
592%
3,21
0,12
Malawi
914%
467%
2065%
1110%
1,31
0,07
Malaysia
239%
2%
-62%
-89%
295,62
9,12
Maldives
561%
3%
65%
-74%
0,95
2,48
Mali
1277%
768%
3018%
1864%
0,92
0,05
Malta
-54%
-29%
-93%
-89%
1,70
3,90
Marshall Islands
47%
-29%
-58%
-80%
0,10
1,90
Martinique
15%
-14%
-88%
-91%
2,92
7,14
Mauritania
345%
17%
166%
-30%
4,63
1,03
Mauritius
125%
-2%
-63%
-84%
4,18
3,30
Mayotte
no data
no data
no data
no data
Mexico
13%
-20%
-81%
-87%
544,54
4,17
Micronesia, Federated States of
0%
5%
0%
-61%
0,14
1,32
Monaco
-30%
0%
-84%
0%
0,11
2,82
Mongolia
-23%
-17%
-89%
-88%
17,01
5,53
Montenegro
0%
-27%
0%
-91%
2,93
4,72
Montserrat
1142%
-13%
-25%
-95%
0,75
141,39
Morocco
168%
11%
-39%
-75%
91,04
2,56
Mozambique
768%
177%
1264%
335%
6,32
0,21
Myanmar
289%
34%
245%
19%
18,06
0,32
Namibia
222%
4%
-2%
-68%
5,43
2,12
Nauru
186%
85%
328%
176%
0,00
0,12
Nepal
551%
67%
769%
123%
5,40
0,18
Netherlands
-41%
-43%
-94%
-94%
150,82
8,87
Netherlands Antilles
-21%
-72%
-95%
-98%
3,62
171,55
New Caledonia
-30%
-21%
-89%
-88%
1,44
5,20
New Zealand
2%
-34%
-88%
-92%
36,77
7,71
Nicaragua
118%
-11%
16%
-52%
5,57
0,85
Niger
1200%
806%
2841%
1951%
1,45
0,06
Nigeria
47%
38%
71%
61%
90,52
0,44
Niue
64%
-6%
-84%
-91%
0,01
8,90
Northern Mariana Islands
no data
no data
no data
no data
Norway
-28%
-36%
-92%
-93%
43,03
8,03
Occupied Palestinian Territory
0%
3%
0%
0%
2,50
0,50
Oman
176%
-2%
-76%
-91%
65,22
14,57
Other non-specified areas
no data
no data
no data
no data
Pakistan
100%
-22%
17%
-54%
157,67
0,79
Palau
4%
13%
-91%
-90%
0,39
17,53
Panama
345%
1%
-21%
-82%
17,93
4,23
Papua New Guinea
75%
-14%
37%
-33%
5,11
0,62
Paraguay
141%
14%
28%
-39%
7,04
0,94
Peru
102%
11%
-41%
-68%
62,22
1,90
Philippines
142%
18%
10%
-46%
132,75
1,22
Poland
-30%
-30%
-93%
-93%
349,07
9,14
Portugal
-43%
-56%
-91%
-93%
38,15
3,60
Puerto Rico
-44%
-40%
42%
51%
0,00
0,00
Qatar
322%
11%
-72%
-92%
110,20
43,75
Republic of Moldova
-86%
-37%
-97%
-88%
6,81
2,03
Réunion
92%
0%
-62%
-80%
2,98
3,19
Romania
-75%
-46%
-96%
-92%
71,55
3,36
Russian Federation
-48%
-25%
-96%
-94%
2.029,24
14,44
Rwanda
416%
344%
932%
788%
1,13
0,08
Saint Helena
-54%
-6%
-87%
-74%
0,01
1,73
Saint Kitts and Nevis
77%
-13%
-65%
-83%
0,17
3,01
Saint Lucia
100%
-12%
-65%
-85%
0,65
3,40
Saint Pierre and Miquelon
19378%
-19%
6696%
-72%
0,01
1,17
Samoa
31%
5%
-48%
-59%
0,25
1,24
San Marino
no data
no data
no data
no data
Sao Tome and Principe
147%
19%
80%
-14%
0,17
0,76
Saudi Arabia
136%
-4%
-81%
-92%
623,36
19,55
Senegal
305%
48%
271%
35%
10,26
0,61
Serbia
0%
-27%
0%
-92%
51,86
5,62
Seychelles
131%
-3%
-80%
-92%
1,23
12,91
Sierra Leone
128%
106%
211%
182%
1,48
0,22
Singapore
24%
-7%
-87%
-90%
58,82
9,83
Sint Maarten (Dutch part)
no data
no data
no data
no data
Slovakia
-58%
-33%
-96%
-93%
40,38
7,38
Slovenia
-29%
-38%
-93%
-94%
16,48
7,88
Solomon Islands
216%
18%
59%
-41%
0,74
1,18
Somalia
389%
479%
939%
1130%
0,89
0,07
South Africa
-29%
-45%
-90%
-92%
298,82
5,45
South Sudan
no data
no data
no data
no data
Spain
-52%
-64%
-92%
-94%
168,96
3,54
Sri Lanka
304%
20%
58%
-53%
23,90
1,08
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
120%
-13%
-59%
-84%
0,31
2,87
Sudan
211%
36%
266%
60%
15,22
0,35
Suriname
-19%
-11%
-86%
-85%
2,04
3,60
Swaziland
117%
15%
9%
-43%
1,34
0,99
Sweden
-44%
-31%
-92%
-90%
50,41
5,06
Switzerland
-29%
-30%
-90%
-90%
49,72
5,81
Syrian Arab Republic
-7%
-31%
-70%
-78%
47,97
1,91
Tajikistan
-48%
-8%
-68%
-44%
8,48
0,90
Thailand
139%
-3%
-70%
-88%
341,51
5,04
Timor-Leste
21032%
13109%
53000%
33091%
0,00
0,00
Togo
460%
60%
402%
43%
4,65
0,59
Tokelau
no data
no data
no data
no data
Tonga
32%
-8%
-16%
-41%
0,07
0,66
Trinidad and Tobago
111%
-38%
-86%
-96%
39,96
29,61
Tunisia
46%
-18%
-70%
-83%
32,90
2,82
Turkey
85%
-3%
-74%
-86%
430,14
5,40
Turkmenistan
-3%
-6%
-91%
-92%
75,60
13,44
Turks and Caicos Islands
0%
33%
0%
-14%
0,02
0,59
Tuvalu
219%
183%
526%
455%
0,00
0,06
Uganda
1780%
675%
4066%
1618%
2,54
0,06
Ukraine
-71%
-20%
-97%
-93%
355,40
8,18
United Arab Emirates
188%
-1%
-77%
-92%
263,13
25,30
United Kingdom
-51%
-40%
-94%
-93%
456,13
6,99
United Rep. of Tanzania
780%
261%
1527%
566%
8,25
0,14
United States
-34%
-38%
-94%
-95%
5.248,53
15,65
United States Virgin Islands
380%
632%
1014%
1598%
0,00
0,01
Uruguay
37%
-10%
-70%
-80%
8,08
2,33
Uzbekistan
-43%
-39%
-90%
-89%
108,48
3,48
Vanuatu
-6%
52%
0%
62%
0,11
0,39
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
30%
-12%
-83%
-89%
225,31
6,83
Viet Nam
602%
10%
57%
-76%
224,53
2,33
Wallis and Futuna Islands
0%
0%
0%
0%
0,04
2,68
Western Sahara
97%
26%
38%
-12%
0,38
0,56
Yemen
132%
-38%
65%
-56%
18,90
0,68
Zambia
159%
190%
303%
351%
4,89
0,28
Zimbabwe
-24%
15%
-58%
-36%
16,73
1,00