Regensburg Model and Smooth Pathway Model

Short introduction

Distribution of the remaining global CO2 budget

CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, the IPCC has published a budget which meets the 2°C limit with a probability of over 66%. This means we have a remaining budget of about 1,000 Gt for 2012 onwards.
This remaining global budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such distribution should be the guidance of the ratchet up mechanism of the paris agreement with self-imposed targets (NDCs).

Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model
(1) A global emission pathway is determined, which is compatible with a given remaining CO2 budget.
(2) National emission paths are derived with the Regensburg Formula, which gradually implement the idea of a „one human – one emission right“.

Download: Flyer "The Regensburg Model" Download

Basic idea behind the Smooth Pathway Model (Raupach et al.)
(1) A remaining global budget is distributed to countries using a weighted distribution key consisting of "population" and "emissions" in a base year.
(2) The SPM formula turns a country's remaining budget into a plausible national emission path.

Latest puplication (further puplications here)

Journal "Climate Policy" on 14 June 2016:
The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions

Download tools and papers

Web application:

With this web app you can easily determine a global path which is compatible with the 2°C limit. In the next step you can choose a country. Using the Regensburg Formula reference values of the country are shown. This web app is particularly suitable for a simple introduction to the subject. However, the results reflect the data from the year 2015. An update is planned.

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