Regensburg Model and Smooth Pathway Model

Short introduction

Distribution of the remaining CO2 budget

CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, the IPCC has published a budget which meets the 2°C limit with a probability of over 66%. This means we have a remaining budget of about 1,000 Gt for 2012 onwards.
This remaining budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such distribution should be the guidance of the ratchet up mechanism of the paris agreement with self-imposed targets (NDCs).

Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model
(1) A global emission pathway is determined, which is compatible with a given remaining CO2 budget.
(2) National emission paths are derived with the Regensburg Formula, which gradually implement the idea of a „one human – one emission right“.

Download: Flyer "The Regensburg Model" Download

Basic idea behind the Smooth Pathway Model (Raupach et al.)
(1) A remaining global budget is distributed to countries using a weighted distribution key consisting of "population" and "emissions" in a base year.
(2) The SPM formula turns a country's remaining budget into a plausible national emission path.

Latest puplication (further puplications here)

Journal "Climate Policy" on 14 June 2016:
The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions

Download tools and papers

Remarks on the tools

With the complete tool you can calculate for each country in the world emission pathways that implement gradually equal per capita emissions until the year of convergence and in addition are compatible with a given cumulative global emission budget (Regensburg Formula).

In order to derive national paths, a global path is required in the Regensburg Model. The tool offers therefore different scenario types to determine global paths that comply with a given global remaining budget. Numerous frame data can be simulated.

In determining plausible global emission paths, the challenge before which we aside is particularly evident. Therfore we have decoupled determining smooth global paths in a separate tool (Tool_global_paths.xlsm). The application of this tool is relatively simple.

The excel tools include macros make working with the tools much easier: If you change input variables you can run a goal seek over all scenarios for example. Your excel program may be configured in such a way as that a warning appears because of the macros. In this case you should enable macros, if you want to use it.You can viewing the macros in VBA before. We provide the tools as xlsm-format (compatible from Excel 2007 onwards).

Web application:

With this web app you can easily determine a global path which is compatible with the 2°C limit. In the next step you can choose a country. Using the Regensburg Formula reference values of the country are shown. This web app is particularly suitable for a simple introduction to the subject.

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