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Reference values to NDCs resp. NDC calculators

Short introduction

Core question: distribution of a global CO2 budget

CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, remaining global CO2 budgets correspond to certain limits of global warming (more information here or here in German).

Which concrete global budget we want to orientate by 2100, however, must ultimately be decided politically on the basis of the current state of scientific knowledge.

Such a global budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such a distribution should be an important guidance of the ratchet up mechanism (ambition mechanism) of the Paris Agreement with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Here, two models including tools are presented that involve distributing a global budget and determining national paths::

Tools based only on the Regensburg Model Scenario Types are also offered

With these tools, we make a contribution to operationalizing the goals of the Paris Agreement.

In addition, resource sharing models are compared.

Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1 - 6 (here is a short description)

With the help of the Regensburg Model Scenario Types, global or national emission paths can be determined that meet a given budget. The scenario types differ in the assumption about the property of the annual reductions. The emission paths are therefore indirectly determined essentially via the annual reductions. This approach is particularly useful when it comes to making political decisions about emission paths.

Basic idea behind the Regensburg Model (RM)

  1. Global paths: Global emission paths are determined that are compatible with a global CO2 budget to be specified. For this purpose, the RM tool provides the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1 - 6 (see above).
  2. National paths: National emission paths are derived from this global paths with the Regensburg Formula, which leads to the convergence of per capita emissions.

Basic idea behind the Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM; inspired by Raupach et al.)

  1. National budgets: A predefined global CO2 budget is distributed to countries. The ESPM tool offers the use of a weighted distribution key that includes the 'population' and the 'emissions' in a base year (here: 2019).
  2. National paths: The ESPM tool offers the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1 - 6 (see above) to derive plausible national paths that adhere to a national budget.

Download tools and papers

Calculation of national emission paths and targets for all countries in the world that are compatible with a specified global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100: Tools RM and ESPM

 

Regensburg Model (RM)

Extended Smooth
Pathway Model (ESPM)
download tool
Download
Download
version of the tool
34.0
41.0
preview ot the tool in the browser
instruction for the tool
Download
Download
method national paths are derived from a global path using the Regensburg Formula national paths are derived that adhere to a given national budget
allocation approach converging per capita emissions weighted distribution key for a global budget with "emissions" and "population" as factors to be weighted
selectable parameter to map climate justice
convergence level weighting population
emission paths The Regensburg Model Scenario Types (RM 1 - 6) are used to derive paths that are compatible with a specified budget.
► see mathematical description of the RM Scenario Types: Download.
scenario types RM 1 - 6 are used to determine global emission paths scenario types RM 1 - 6 are used to determine national emission paths
data base
EDGAR - is provided by the EU Commission: CO2 fossil and industrial processes
paper

Journal "Climate Policy" published online on 14 June 2016:
The Regensburg Model: reference values for the (I)NDCs based on converging per capita emissions Download

working paper:
Application of the ESPM to the EU objectives:
Is the EU 2030 target compatible with the Paris Agreement? (in German) Download

exemplary results
global CO2 budget
2018 - 2100
EU27
2030 vs. 1990
(RM-5)
all countries

Here you will find results in the ESPM with different framework data:

  • weighting population:
    100, 85, 70, 50, 30, 15 or 0%
  • global budgets: 420, 570, 680 or 800 Gt
  • potential for net negative emissions:
    0, -5 or -10% of the emissions in 2019
420 Gt
-64%
Download
570 Gt
-58%
Download
680 Gt
-54%
Download
further here specified parameters:
minimum global emission in Gt
-3.67
convergence level in t/capita
0.25
relationship between
ESPM and RM
Depending on the chosen global path and the chosen convergence level, there is an implicit weighting of the population in the resulting national budgets in the RM. The use of this implicit weighting as an explicit weighting in the ESPM leads to very similar results as in the RM. The results in the RM can therefore also be generated in the ESPM if the weighting of the population is specified accordingly. The implicit weighting can be calculated in the RM tool and is given above in the example results for the RM.
web app  

eu.climate-calculator.info
      (data base here: EEA)

Determination of emission paths that adhere to a given buget using the RM Scenario Types

 
determine global paths
Tool_global_paths
determine global or national paths
Tool_Paths_Regensburg_Model_Scenario_Types
donwload tool
Download
Download
version of the tool
15.0
20.0
preview ot the tool in the browser
instruction for the tool
Download
Download
background

In determining plausible global emission paths, the challenge before which we aside is particularly evident. Therfore we have decoupled determining smooth global paths in a separate tool.

With this simple tool, global or national emission paths can be derived that meet a specified budget.

This tool is particularly suitable if

  • a global or national budget is already known and the first interest is in compatible emission paths,
  • the focus is on getting to know the RM Scenario Types or
  • a database other than EDGAR is to be used.

The basic approach corresponds to the ESPM.

additional feature Contains the illustrative IPCC SR1.5 paths P1 - P4 (LED, S1, S2, S5). Here a "corona effect" can be taken into account. Sample data for the EU and global are offered.
exemplary results   Here you will find some results for the EU and Germany with different framework data. Especially on the basis of the framework data from the German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU).
method The tools uses the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (RM 1 - 6) to determine emission paths that are compatible with a given budget. These sceanrio types differ in the assumption about the property of the annual changes (see mathematical description: Download).
paper working paper: Application of the ESPM to the EU objectives:
Is the EU 2030 target compatible with the Paris Agreement? (in German) Download
web app   eu.climate-calculator.info

 

Results of the models based on the framework data specified by you

Comparison similar approaches (Resource Sharing Models)

Resource sharing models directly address the allocation of a remaining global budget. This article will therefore give an overview of the properties of resource sharing models that, in principle, use current emissions and population as a distribution key. The following models are compared: Regensburg Model (Regensburg Formula), Contraction & Convergence (C&C), Smooth Pathway Models (Smooth Pathway Formula from Raupach and Extended Smooth Pathway Model), Chakravarty et al. (cap per capita emissions), Höhne et al. (common but differentiated convergence; CDC).

Remark on the tools

The Excel tools include macros.

On request, the tools can be provided without macros and the macros as text or bas files for self-integration. Please contact us: save-the-climate@online.ms (mail to).

You can also remove the macros by saving the downloaded xlsm file as an xlsx file. The main function of the macros is to determine the free parameters in the scenario types so that the specified budget is adhered to. You then have to do this individually for each scenario type in the sheet "goal seek" using the target value search (goal seek) integrated in Excel. If the target value search does not find a solution, you can change the default values in this sheet and try again.The "Paths_Regensburg_Model_Scenario_Types" tool is ideal for this because of its simple structure.

Mathematical papers

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