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CONTENTS

Key framework data

Data base: EDGAR

Weighting population

100%
85%
70%
50%
30%
15%
0%

Data base: EEA

Examples EU

Specify your own framework data

national CO2 budgets and emission targets
in the ESPM with different framework data

The key framework data

The most important framework data to be decided politically are:

• Global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100
• How can a global carbon budget be distributed fairly and in an economically reasonable way among countries?
  For the following results, the global budget was distributed to the countries using a weighted distribution key. The distribution key includes the share of the population and the share of emissions in a base year.
• Potential for net negative emissions (NNE)
  You can specify this potential in the ESPM by specifying the minimum value for annual emissions up to 2100. You do this by specifying a percentage that will be applied to a country's current emissions. If this percentage is negative, this corresponds to net negative emissions.If this is the case, a temporary overshoot is possible in the ESPM tools, which is offset by net negative emissions until 2100.

Limitation to the examples shown here

Which combinations of the global budget and overshoot are still paris compatible must be scientifically checked.This is particularly important with regard to the tipping points in the climate system.

Reference values and national CO2 budgets

Data base: EDGAR (without Land-use change)

EDGAR: Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research - EU Commission

Tool: ESPM (download)

Land-use change CO2 emissions

Since the data base at country level for CO2 emissions from land use changes (LUC) is still very scarce, for the following results we are distributing a global budget without LUC emissions to countries. To determine the budget to be reserved for netto positive LUC (npLUC) emissions, you can specify a percentage with which the npLUC budget is determined. Currently the annual LUC emissions amount to approx. 5.5 Gt with total emissions of approx. 42 Gt. LUC emissions currently account for around 13% of global emissions. This percentage is one possible approach to determine the remaining npLUC budget.

The EDGAR database used here contains the CO2 emissions for all countries in the world due to the use of fossil fuels and industrial processes. The following national CO2 budgets are therfore without LUC and ISA CO2 emissions (ISA: international shipping and aviation).

RM Scenario Types 1 - 6

The scenario type RM-5-rad was used to determine the emission paths and thus the reference values for the largest CO2 emitters. This is characterized by a rapid increase in reduction rates right from the start. Here is a description of the different types of scenarios.

The starting value for determining a plausible rate of change for the first year 2020 is 50% of the rate of change that would result in scenario type RM-6-abs. The value used is specified in the PDFs.

The following tables are structured as follows:

• Weighting population
• Global budget
• Potential net negative emissions (NNE)
• Reserved for net positive LUC emissions (npLUC)

Weighting population key: 100%

weighting population key: 100%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters	overview of EU27 results
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 85%

weighting population key: 85%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters	overview of EU27 results
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 70%

weighting population key: 70%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters	overview of EU27 results
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 50%

weighting population key: 50%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters	overview of EU27 results
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 30%

weighting population key: 30%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters	overview of EU27 results
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 15%

weighting population key: 15%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters	overview of EU27 results
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 0%

weighting population key: 0%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters	overview of EU27 results
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Data base: European Environment Agency (EEA; all CO2 emissions)

A few selected results for the EU are calculated using our general tool for determining emission paths that meet a certain budget (download):

	global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	weighting population key	overview of EU27 results	overview of EU28 results
	420 Gt	-4%	50%
		-8%
frame data german SRU	800 Gt	0%	100%

Results of the tools based on the framework data specified by you

• It is possible to make the results available in the ESPM as PDFs based on the framework data you have given and for the country you have chosen. Here you can download a form for a request .
• Current: We are making a web application for ESPM available for the EU:
  
  eu.climate-calculator.info