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CONTENTS

Key framework data

Data base: EDGAR

Weighting population

100%
85%
70%
50%
30%
15%
0%

Data base: EEA

Examples EU

Data base: SRU

EU28
Germany

Specify your own framework data

national CO2 budgets and emission targets
in the ESPM with different framework data

Short introduction

Core question: distribution of a global CO2 budget

CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, remaining global CO2 budgets correspond to certain limits of global warming (more information here or here in German).

Which concrete global budget we want to orientate by 2100, however, must ultimately be decided politically on the basis of the current state of scientific knowledge.

Such a global budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such a distribution should be an important guidance of the ratchet up mechanism (ambition mechanism) of the Paris Agreement with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

Basic idea behind the Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM)

1. National budgets: A predefined global CO2 budget is distributed to countries. The ESPM-Tools offers the use of a weighted distribution key which contains the "population" and the "emissions" in a base year.
2. National paths: The ESPM tool offers the Regensburg Model Scenario Types RM 1 - 6 (brief description) to derive plausible national paths that adhere to a national budget.

The key framework data

The most important framework data to be decided politically are:

• Global CO2 budget 2018 - 2100
• Distribution of a global budget
  How can a global carbon budget be distributed fairly and in an economically reasonable way among countries?
  For the following results in the ESPM, the global budget was distributed to the countries using a weighted distribution key. The distribution key contains the proportion of the population and the proportion of emissions in a base year (here: 2019). The weighting of the population is the selectable parameter.
• Potential for net negative emissions (NNE)
  You can specify this potential in the ESPM by specifying the minimum value for annual emissions up to 2100. You do this by specifying a percentage that will be applied to a country's current emissions. If this percentage is negative, this corresponds to net negative emissions. If this is the case, a temporary overshoot is possible in the ESPM tools, which is offset by net negative emissions until 2100.

Limitation to the examples shown here

Which combinations of the global budget and overshoot are still Paris compatible must be scientifically checked.This is particularly important with regard to the tipping points in the climate system.

National reference values (targets) and CO2 budgets

Data base: EDGAR (without Land-use change)

• EDGAR: Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research - EU Commission
• Tool: ESPM (download)
  
  

Land-use change and international shipping/aviation CO2 emissions

Since the data base at country level for CO2 emissions from land use changes (LUC) is still very scarce, for the following results we are distributing a global budget without LUC emissions to countries. To determine the budget to be reserved for net positive LUC emissions (npLUC), you can specify a percentage with which the npLUC budget is determined. Currently the annual LUC emissions amount to approx. 5.5 Gt with total emissions of approx. 42 Gt. LUC emissions currently account for around 13% of global emissions. This percentage is one possible approach to determine the remaining npLUC budget.

For the CO2 emissions from international shipping and aviation (ISA), 3% of the global budget is reserved in the following reference values. This roughly corresponds to their share of current global CO2 emissions. This value is also an input value in our tools.

The EDGAR database used here contains the CO2 emissions for all countries in the world due to the use of fossil fuels and industrial processes. The following national CO2 budgets are therfore without LUC and ISA.

RM Scenario Types 1 - 6

The following scenario types are used to determine the emission paths and thus the reference values in the following tables for the countries with the highest CO2 emissions:

• RM-3-lin: linear course of the annual reduction rates
• RM-4-quadr: concave course of the annual reduction rates
• RM-5-rad: convex course of the annual reduction rates
• RM-6-abs: constant annual reduction amount (concave course of the annual reduction rates, the emission path is a straight line).

We currently offer a total of six scenario types that cover the range of plausible options well. Here you will find a comprehensive mathematical description of the different RM Scenario Types and here a brief description.

The rate of change for the starting year (here: 2020) is an input value in the ESPM. For the automated determination of the reference values for the countries with the highest emissions, approx. 50% of the rate of change that results in the scenario type RM-6-abs was used. The value used is given in the PDFs.

The following tables are structured as follows:

• Weighting population
• Global budget
• Potential net negative emissions (NNE)
• Reserved for net positive LUC emissions (npLUC)
• Scenario Type (largest emitters)

Weighting population key: 100%

weighting population key: 100%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters				overview of EU27 results
Scenario Type			RM-3-lin	RM-4-quadr	RM-5-rad	RM-6-abs	RM 1 - 6
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 85%

weighting population key: 85%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters				overview of EU27 results
Scenario Type			RM-3-quadr	RM-4-quadr	RM-5-rad	RM-6-abs	RM 1 - 6
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 70%

weighting population key: 70%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters				overview of EU27 results
Scenario Type			RM-3-lin	RM-4-quadr	RM-5-rad	RM-6-abs	RM 1 - 6
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 50%

weighting population key: 50%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters				overview of EU27 results
Scenario Type			RM-3-lin	RM-4-quadr	RM-5-rad	RM-6-abs	RM 1 - 6
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 30%

weighting population key: 30%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters				overview of EU27 results
Scenario Type			RM-3-lin	RM-4-quadr	RM-5-rad	RM-6-abs	RM 1 - 6
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 15%

weighting population key: 15%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters				overview of EU27 results
Scenario Type			RM-3-lin	RM-4-quadr	RM-5-rad	RM-6-abs	RM 1 - 6
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Weighting population key: 0%

weighting population key: 0%

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	npLUC	results for the largest emitters				overview of EU27 results
Scenario Type			RM-3-lin	RM-4-quadr	RM-5-rad	RM-6-abs	RM 1 - 6
420 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
570 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
680 Gt	0%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-5%	10%
		13%
		16%
	-10%	10%
		13%
		16%
800 Gt	0%	10%
		13%

Data base: European Environment Agency (EEA; all CO2 emissions)

A few selected results for the EU are calculated using our general tool for determining emission paths that meet a certain budget (download). Since the EEA data include all CO2 emissions (including ISA and LUC), no budget needs to be reserved for these emissions.

global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100	NNE	weighting population key	overview of EU27 results	overview of EU28 results
420 Gt	-4%	50%
	-8%
800 Gt	0%	100%

Data base: German Advisory Council on the Environment / Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen (SRU)

Parameters environmental report 2020 of the SRU:

• weighting population 100% from 2016 on / Gewichtung Bevölkerung 100% ab 2016
• no consideration of net negative emissions / keine Berücksichtigung von Netto-Negativemissionen (NNE)
• we use here the SRU data for both remaining budgets and emissions data / Verwendung der Daten des SRU sowohl bei den verbleibenden Budgets als auch bei den Emissionsdaten
• calculated using our general tool for determining emission paths that meet a certain budget (download)

global CO2 budgets from 2018 on	EU28	Germany
580 Gt
800 Gt SRU: Maximum global budget that is still compatible with keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C

Results of the tools based on the framework data specified by you

• It is possible to make the results available in the ESPM as PDFs based on the framework data you have given and for the country you have chosen. Here you can download a form for a request .
• web application for the ESPM for the EU:
  
  eu.climate-calculator.info