CO2 affect the climate for a long time. Therefore, remaining global CO2 budgets correspond to certain limits of global warming (more information here or here in German).
Which concrete global budget we want to orientate by 2100, however, must ultimately be decided politically on the basis of the current state of scientific knowledge.
Such a global budget raises the question of how it can be distributed amongst the countries in a fair and economically reasonable way. Such a distribution should be an important guidance of the ratchet up mechanism (ambition mechanism) of the Paris Agreement with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
The most important framework data to be decided politically are:
Limitation to the examples shown here
Which combinations of the global budget and overshoot are still Paris compatible must be scientifically checked.This is particularly important with regard to the tipping points in the climate system.
Since the data base at country level for CO2 emissions from land use changes (LUC) is still very scarce, for the following results we are distributing a global budget without LUC emissions to countries. To determine the budget to be reserved for net positive LUC emissions (npLUC), you can specify a percentage with which the npLUC budget is determined. Currently the annual LUC emissions amount to approx. 5.5 Gt with total emissions of approx. 42 Gt. LUC emissions currently account for around 13% of global emissions. This percentage is one possible approach to determine the remaining npLUC budget.
For the CO2 emissions from international shipping and aviation (ISA), 3% of the global budget is reserved in the following reference values. This roughly corresponds to their share of current global CO2 emissions. This value is also an input value in our tools.
The EDGAR database used here contains the CO2 emissions for all countries in the world due to the use of fossil fuels and industrial processes. The following national CO2 budgets are therfore without LUC and ISA.
The following scenario types are used to determine the emission paths and thus the reference values in the following tables for the countries with the highest CO2 emissions:
We currently offer a total of six scenario types that cover the range of plausible options well. Here you will find a comprehensive mathematical description of the different RM Scenario Types and here a brief description.
The rate of change for the starting year (here: 2020) is an input value in the ESPM. For the automated determination of the reference values for the countries with the highest emissions, approx. 50% of the rate of change that results in the scenario type RM-6-abs was used. The value used is given in the PDFs.
The following tables are structured as follows:
global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100 |
NNE |
npLUC |
results for the largest emitters |
overview of EU27 results |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario Type |
RM-3-lin |
RM-4-quadr |
RM-5-rad |
RM-6-abs |
RM 1 - 6 |
||
420 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
570 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
680 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
800 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100 |
NNE |
npLUC |
results for the largest emitters |
overview of EU27 results |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario Type
|
RM-3-quadr |
RM-4-quadr |
RM-5-rad |
RM-6-abs |
RM 1 - 6 |
||
420 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
570 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
680 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
800 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100 |
NNE |
npLUC |
results for the largest emitters |
overview of EU27 results |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario Type
|
RM-3-lin |
RM-4-quadr |
RM-5-rad |
RM-6-abs |
RM 1 - 6 |
||
420 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
570 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
680 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
800 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100 |
NNE |
npLUC |
results for the largest emitters |
overview of EU27 results |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario Type
|
RM-3-lin |
RM-4-quadr |
RM-5-rad |
RM-6-abs |
RM 1 - 6 |
||
420 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
570 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
680 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
800 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100 |
NNE |
npLUC |
results for the largest emitters |
overview of EU27 results |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario Type
|
RM-3-lin |
RM-4-quadr |
RM-5-rad |
RM-6-abs |
RM 1 - 6 |
||
420 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
570 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
680 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
800 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100 |
NNE |
npLUC |
results for the largest emitters |
overview of EU27 results |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario Type
|
RM-3-lin |
RM-4-quadr |
RM-5-rad |
RM-6-abs |
RM 1 - 6 |
||
420 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
570 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
680 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
800 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100 |
NNE |
npLUC |
results for the largest emitters |
overview of EU27 results |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario Type
|
RM-3-lin |
RM-4-quadr |
RM-5-rad |
RM-6-abs |
RM 1 - 6 |
||
420 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
570 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
680 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-5% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
-10% |
10% |
||||||
13% |
|||||||
16% |
|||||||
800 Gt |
0% |
10% |
|||||
13% |
A few selected results for the EU are calculated using our general tool for determining emission paths that meet a certain budget (download). Since the EEA data include all CO2 emissions (including ISA and LUC), no budget needs to be reserved for these emissions.
global CO2 budgets 2018 - 2100 |
NNE |
weighting population key |
overview of EU27 results |
overview of EU28 results |
420 Gt
|
-4% |
50%
|
||
-8%
|
||||
800 Gt
|
0%
|
100% |
Parameters environmental report 2020 of the SRU:
global CO2 budgets from 2018 on |
EU28 |
Germany |
580 Gt |
||
800 Gt SRU: Maximum global budget that is still compatible with keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C |