Climate policy - effective & fair
CO2 budgets published by the IPCC
The overarching objective of the Paris Agreement is to hold "the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels" and to pursue efforts "to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." |
Remaining global CO2 budgets from 2020 onward according to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
for different global warming levels, with an 83% probability of staying below the respective warming level:
Warming |
Estimated remaining
carbon budgets |
|---|---|
[°C] |
[GtCO2 from 2020 on] |
1.5 |
300 |
1.6 |
400 |
1.7 |
550 |
1.8 |
650 |
We currently emit around 42 Gt CO2 per year.
More detailed information is summarised here:
www.ipcc-co2-budgets.climate-calculator.info
Temporary carbon-budget overshoot
Since staying directly within these budgets can no longer be considered realistic,
a temporary overshoot would have to be offset by net negative CO2 emissions.
More information can be found here.
CO2 clock
The MCC's CO2 clock is based on a 67% probability of staying below the respective warming level (1.5°C: 400 Gt; 2°C: 1,150 Gt) and asks how long the global budget would last if global CO2 emissions remained at today's level.
Global paths
Web app for calculating linear global emissions paths consistent with a predetermined CO2 budget:
National CO2 budgets
Web app for calculating Paris-compatible national CO2 budgets:
The web app takes two key criteria into account:
(1) current emissions reality
(2) climate justice
For the underlying allocation criteria, see the corresponding background note here.
Here is a more detailed version of the app, which also includes a direct comparison with the NDCs of the six largest emitters:
www.national-budgets.climate-calculator.info
Meeting national CO2 budgets
National CO2 budgets can best be met through hard caps in emissions trading systems. To ensure that the resulting 'whatever-it-takes-CO2-prices' can be politically enforced and are fair, the entire auction proceeds should be distributed back to citizens as a per capita lump sum (climate dividend).
In parallel, efforts should be made to agree on standards for particularly CO2-intensive processes and activities — such as steel production, cement production, certain basic chemical processes, international aviation and shipping — within a coalition of the willing (climate club).
