Web app
Global paths
Web app for calculating linear global emission paths consistent with a predetermined CO2 budget.
global-paths.CO2 budgets published by the IPCC
From remaining global CO2 budgets to global emission paths and Paris-compatible national CO2 budgets.
Short link:
ipcc-co2-budgets.
The Paris temperature goal
The overarching objective of the
Paris Agreement
is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to
well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and to pursue
efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels.”
Remaining global CO2 budgets
Remaining global CO2 budgets from 2020 onward according to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, for different global warming levels, with an 83% probability of staying below the respective warming level.
| Warming [°C] |
Estimated remaining carbon budgets [GtCO2 from 2020 on] |
|---|---|
| 1.5 | 300 |
| 1.6 | 400 |
| 1.7 | 550 |
| 1.8 | 650 |
We currently emit around 42 Gt CO2 per year.
Temporary carbon-budget overshoot
Since staying directly within these budgets can no longer be considered realistic, a temporary overshoot would have to be offset by net negative CO2 emissions. More information can be found here.
CO2 clock
The PIK's CO2 clock is based on a 67% probability of staying below the respective warming level (1.5°C: 400 Gt; 2°C: 1,150 Gt) and asks how long the global budget would last if global CO2 emissions remained at today's level.
From global budgets to emission paths and national budgets
The following web apps use a predefined global CO2 budget as a starting point for further calculations.
global-paths.Web app
National CO2 budgets
Web app for calculating Paris-compatible national CO2 budgets. Two versions are available:
Short version
Compact access to the national budget calculation.
short.Detailed version
Includes a direct comparison with the NDCs of the six largest emitters.
national-budgets.The web app takes two key criteria into account:
- current emissions reality
- climate justice
For the underlying allocation criteria, see the corresponding background note here.
Overview
Tools and papers
Overview of the web apps, Excel tools and papers relating to the Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM).
overview.Meeting national CO2 budgets
National CO2 budgets can best be met through hard caps in emissions trading systems. To ensure that the resulting ‘whatever-it-takes CO2 prices’ can be politically enforced and are fair, the entire auction proceeds should be distributed back to citizens as a per capita lump sum (climate dividend).
In parallel, efforts should be made to agree on standards for particularly CO2-intensive processes and activities — such as steel production, cement production, certain basic chemical processes, international aviation and shipping — within a coalition of the willing (climate club).