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Extended Smooth Pathway Model · ESPM

Overview of web apps, Excel tools and papers

Tools and publications for deriving Paris-compatible national CO2 budgets, emission paths and targets.

Short link to this page: www.climate-calculator.info

Calculation of Paris-compatible emission paths and targets with the ESPM

The ESPM consists of two calculation steps. Brief background paper on the ESPM

Step 1 Determination of a national budget
Step 2 Derivation of plausible emission paths that adhere to this budget

ESPM tools and papers at a glance

Merged cells are intentional: they show which characteristics or calculation methods apply jointly to several tools.

On small screens, swipe horizontally to view the complete matrix. The first column remains visible.

Web apps, Excel tools and published papers on the Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM).
What is calculated? emission paths only
(RM Scenario Types) 		budgets and emission paths for the EU
(RM Scenario Types) 		national CO2 budgets and linear emission paths for all countries
Web apps
Web app paths.climate-calculator.info eu.climate-calculator.info national-budgets.climate-calculator.info
short version 		GCP.national-budgets.climate-calculator.info
Applicable to any geographical or other unit EU with data for all countries in the world
Which emissions freely specifiable all CO2 emissions
(database EEA)		 CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels
(database EDGAR)		 total CO2 emissions
(database GCP)
Step 1: budget The budget must be defined by the user; the tools in the right-hand columns may provide support. To derive a national CO2 budget from a predefined global CO2 budget, a weighting model is offered that takes into account the country's share of the world population and of global emissions.
Step 2: paths

To calculate the emission paths, the tools use the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (brief description).

These scenario types are designed to cover the full range of plausible emission paths. Which scenario type is appropriate in a given case must be assessed scientifically from an overall climate policy perspective.

The web apps also show emission targets based on linear emission paths.
Excel tools
Corresponding Excel tool
with additional features

In general, a tool for determining emission paths that comply with a predefined budget.

Open Excel tool on Zenodo

Additional feature compared with the emission-paths web app: the selectable start-year rate of change may also be positive.

Calculation of national CO2 budgets based on different databases (EDGAR, GCP, EEA).

Open Excel tool on Zenodo

Additional features e.g.:

  • Distribution of a global CO2 budget from 2016 instead of 2020.
  • Calculation of the implicit weighting of the population based on an NDC, for example.
Step 1: budget

The user must generally define the budget themselves (see tools in the right-hand column for possible support).

The Excel tool for calculating national CO2 budgets (see right-hand column) can be linked to this Excel tool so that the emissions data of all countries in the world and the national budgets calculated there are also available in this tool.

The Excel tool also contains emissions data for the EU and Germany, as well as global emissions data. For the EU and Germany, national CO2 budgets can also be determined using the weighting model.

To derive a national CO2 budget from a predefined global CO2 budget, a weighting model is offered that takes into account the country's share of the world population and of global emissions.
Step 2: paths To calculate the emission paths, the tool uses the Regensburg Model Scenario Types (brief description). The tool also indicates the year of emissions neutrality under a linear emission path.
ESPM Tool

Integrated tool for determining national CO2 budgets for all countries in the world and emission paths that comply with this budget.

Open integrated ESPM Excel tool on Zenodo
Step 1: budget The tool uses the weighting model (see above) and the EDGAR database.
Step 2: paths The tool uses the RM Scenario Types (see above).
Papers
Last published papers

Paris-compatible emission paths and targets 		six major emitters
Open paper on the six major emitters
EU
Open paper on Paris-compatible emission targets for the EU and Germany
realistic global framework data
Open paper on realistic global Paris-compatible framework data

Further web apps